Abstract
Consistent with the salience theory of choice under risk (Bordalo et al., 2012), a growing body of research indicates that correlation between lotteries affects subjects‘ preferences. However, the experimental literature on regret theory (Loomes and Sugden, 1982) highlights that presumed correlation effects most likely stem from changes in the display format, often due to event-splitting. We conduct two online experiments where we investigate salience-predicted correlation effects while controlling for display format effects. In experiment 1, we replicate the studies of Dertwinkel-Kalt and Köster (2020, henceforth: DKK) and Frydman and Mormann (2018), which had been supportive of salience theory, yet, which involve changes in the display format to illustrate a modified correlation. In experiment 2, we construct an experimental framework that investigates salience-predicted correlation effects without requiring changes in the display format to illustrate a modified correlation structure. We examine the predictions derived from salience theory both in a gain and a loss setting. Additionally, we present subjects our experimental design within a frame where an event-splitting treatment contravenes salience-predicted correlation effects.
References
Bordalo, P., Gennaioli, N., & Shleifer, A. (2012). Salience theory of choice under risk. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(3), 1243–1285.
Dertwinkel-Kalt, M., & Köster, M. (2020). Salience and skewness preferences. Journal of the European Economic Association, 18(5), 2057–2107.
Frydman, C., & Mormann, M. (2018). The role of salience in choice under risk: An experi-mental investigation. University of Southern California (mimeo).
Loomes, G., & Sugden, R. (1982). Regret theory: An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. The Economic Journal, 92(368), 805–824.