The Dynamics of Devolution: Causal Effects of External Shocks

Last registered on July 26, 2021

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Dynamics of Devolution: Causal Effects of External Shocks
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0007987
Initial registration date
July 22, 2021
Last updated
July 26, 2021, 11:23 AM EDT

Locations

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance
PI Affiliation
University of Stirling
PI Affiliation
University of Stirling
PI Affiliation
University of Stirling

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2021-07-21
End date
2021-08-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
This project aims at investigating the dynamics of constitutional change. What drives the demand for (more) devolution, or even secession? Do these attitudes lie on one and the same spectrum? While politically and historically-rooted factors matter in this respect, critical junctures in the form of large, external shocks surely have their part to play as well?
We focus on the latter and propose to run a large online survey experiment Scotland and England exploiting the Covid-19 epidemic as an exogenous shock on the political institutions.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Bell, David et al. 2021. "The Dynamics of Devolution: Causal Effects of External Shocks." AEA RCT Registry. July 26. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.7987-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2021-07-21
Intervention End Date
2021-08-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
See attachments
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We randomise whether the respondents are primed with Covid-19 questions before answering our outcome questions, and, within the primed group, whether the Covid-19 questions focus on its economic or everyday life consequences.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
10000 individuals in England, 3000 in Scotland
Sample size: planned number of observations
10000 individuals in England, 3000 in Scotland
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Equal size of treatment arms within each of England and Scotland
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Minimal detectable effects are MDE=0.12 and MDE=0.06 on standardized outcome measures at alpha=0.05 and power=0.8 in, respectively, Scottish and English within-country analyses.
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
General University Ethics Panel
IRB Approval Date
2021-06-15
IRB Approval Number
NA
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials