Kartu Prakerja Impact Evaluation

Last registered on September 03, 2021

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Kartu Prakerja Impact Evaluation
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0008051
Initial registration date
September 03, 2021
Last updated
September 03, 2021, 5:44 PM EDT

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
MIT

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Asakreativita
PI Affiliation
Harvard
PI Affiliation
Prospera; Center for Economic and Development Studies (CEDS), Universitas Padjadjaran
PI Affiliation
TNP2K; Universitas Gadjah Mada
PI Affiliation
TNP2K

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2020-12-04
End date
2025-01-31
Secondary IDs
7200AA18APS00005, GR-1828, GR-1790, GR-1833
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Kartu Prakerja is a novel Government of Indonesia program that combines vocational training with cash transfers, using a web-based platform and digital G2P (government-to-person) payments, to develop work skills, promote employment, sustain families, and promote digital financial inclusion. Launched in early 2020, it is a key component of Indonesia’s social protection policy, with millions already enrolled. We leverage Kartu Prakerja’s lottery enrollment system, national sample surveys, and new surveys to rigorously evaluate program effects on labor, consumption smoothing, and financial behaviors. We focus on comparing eligible applicants in 2020 and 2021 randomly selected to receive the program (treatment) to those not randomly selected (control). We additionally explore take-up of the program in terms of the types of applicants that benefit from the program.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Alatas, Vivi et al. 2021. "Kartu Prakerja Impact Evaluation." AEA RCT Registry. September 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.8051-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Overall impact evaluation: Receipt of the Kartu Prakerja jobs training and cash transfer program among eligible applicants
Intervention Start Date
2021-01-25
Intervention End Date
2023-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The six primary outcomes we will examine are:
• Labor force outcomes (employed; new job or business since program application; wage; monthly household income, hours worked; job search and activity preparing a new business; job satisfaction, confidence in business skills, child care responsibilities, sectoral change subject to data availability)
• Consumption smoothing (asset sales, loans, transfers, migration, and self-reported and subjective consumption)
• Psychometric outcomes (depression; self-efficacy)
• Digital skills and comfort (use of internet in job, comfort with and usage of e-money, preferences for e-money vs. phone credits as survey compensation, use of platforms)
• Types of trainings chosen (courses selected, amount of training budget spent).
• Approval of government COVID response and preferences about government programs

We will also examine ‘first stage’ outcomes that measure program usage (program uptake, obtaining training certificates, total hours spent in training courses).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
See below.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Heterogeneity: In addition to the overall impact evaluation, we plan to analyze two important dimensions of heterogeneity
• Multiple applications: for households that apply in batch X, compare impacts for winners from batch X with impacts from those who lose batch X but reapply and win in a subsequent batch. We will focus on batches for which there is immediate and/or short delay between the announcement of one batch and the application to the next batch.
• Gender: for households where multiple family members apply in the same batch, how do outcomes differ if a male vs. female applicant is randomly selected as the winner in that batch.

Note that for these outcomes, we will consider the primary outcomes above, as well as additional primary outcomes from the administrative data (number of reapplications, type of training course chosen, share of available training budget spend, and time to first stipend disbursal).

When possible, depending on timing of data source, we will do heterogeneity based on whether those randomized to receive the program are currently / recently getting the stipend as of the time of the survey.

We will also do secondary heterogeneity analysis based on demographics (age, education, gender, rural/urban, java/off java, and baseline occupation if available).

Descriptive Analysis of Program Uptake: We will also provide descriptive analysis of program uptake using baseline data matched to administrative data for eligible populations, including marginal value of income (consumption, wages), baseline internet access (cell phone coverage, smartphone/laptop ownership), gender / recent maternity status, previous employment, disability, and other demographics.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The Kartu Prakerja enrollment lottery randomizes eligible applicants to receive the program (treatment group) or not (control group). Those who are not selected in a given wave of this lottery are allowed to reapply. The first component of this research is to compare the outcomes of eligible applicants selected to receive the program to eligible applicants not selected to the program, to accurately calculate the program’s impacts. We extend this analysis to understand determinants of program takeup and heterogeneous effects along two key dimensions: a) heterogeneity based on the number of times people have previously applied and b) for families with multiple applicants, heterogeneity based on which family member is randomly selected.

Data
We study eligible program applicants from 2020 and 2021 using 1) Kartu Prakerja administrative data, 2) Indonesian national sample surveys (Sakernas and Susenas from August 2020-September 2021 as outcomes, and prior Sakernas and Susenas from 2018-2020 as baseline), and 3) program-specific surveys.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Computer random number generator
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A; individual randomization
Sample size: planned number of observations
Administrative Data: Approximately 45,000,000 applicants Surveys we conduct: Approximately 40,000 beneficiaries Government surveys: All applicants who are matched to national sample surveys
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 45,000,000 applicants in batches 1-17; approximately 5 million of which were chosen to receive the program; only a small subset of these will be covered in survey data, see above
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
MIT COUHES
IRB Approval Date
2021-01-25
IRB Approval Number
2012000287
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

210901 PraKerja Analysis Plan.pdf

MD5: 5e110e88b854dea4777a73c6b08baddb

SHA1: 64deed1e045190489efbb5861d64b8b5bf744dab

Uploaded At: September 03, 2021