Does Improving Destination Food Security Increase Migration? Experimental Evidence from the Indian Public Distribution System

Last registered on December 19, 2022

Pre-Trial

General Information

Title

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0008385

Initial registration date

October 17, 2021

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

October 19, 2021, 1:17 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated

December 19, 2022, 8:14 AM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country

India

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

Travis Baseler

Affiliation

University of Rochester

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Ambar Narayan

PI Affiliation

The World Bank

Contact Investigator

PI Name

Odyssia Ng

PI Affiliation

The World Bank

Contact Investigator

PI Name

Sutirtha Sinha Roy

PI Affiliation

The World Bank

Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2021-10-20

End date

2023-06-30

Keywords

Governance, Labor, Welfare

Additional Keywords

migration, social protection, risk, credit constraints

JEL code(s)

J61, R23, R12, I38

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

Many developing-economy labor markets feature persistent spatial gaps in real income, which are substantial even after accounting for workers’ skills. This suggests that labor mobility is too low to capture the economic benefits of migration. A possible explanation is that migration is risky, particularly for poor households. Social protection programs thus have the potential to facilitate migration by easing financial constraints. We study the Public Distribution System (PDS) in India, which entitles 66% of the population to subsidized food grain. We randomly inform a representative set of around 62,000 beneficiary households across 18 Indian states about a recent scheme to allow migrants to collect food ration across the country, rather than being restricted to a PDS shop in their hometown. Data we collected prior to the experiment show that awareness of the program is extremely low. We will test whether learning about ration portability increases migration and improves economic well-being.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Baseler, Travis et al. 2022. "Does Improving Destination Food Security Increase Migration? Experimental Evidence from the Indian Public Distribution System." AEA RCT Registry. December 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.8385-4.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Our intervention involves a single treatment group and a control group. Households in our treatment group will be read a script during the CMIE survey. The intervention will be delivered during surveys lasting from October to December 2021. The script includes basic information about the ONORC scheme, including that their ration allowance is portable across district and state lines, information on which states have joined the ONORC program by the time of the survey, information on the documents required to claim ration outside of their designated PDS shop, and information on government offices responsible for resolving ration access issues and the phone number of a government helpline dedicated to ration portability. The script will be read by a CMIE enumerator, and an information sheet will be left with the respondent. We will also provide these households with access to an information hotline, which they can call to obtain local information (phone numbers and/or addresses) on ration shops across 29 states. We processed and uploaded individual ration shop information to Mapbox and Google Earth so that hotline staff can search for ration shops within or near the caller’s locality of interest. The hotline will be staffed by research assistants, who can also answer basic questions about ration portability. Hotline access will last for 5 months after the beginning of the intervention (from October 2021 to March 2022).

Intervention Start Date

2021-10-20

Intervention End Date

2021-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

Total emigration

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

We will measure total emigration as the number of individuals who are either baseline or new emigrants. We will also report a dummy measure equal to 1 if any family member is a baseline or new emigrant.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Knowledge of ration portability, planned new emigration, new emigration, urban emigration, inter-state and inter-district emigration, family earned income, family total consumption, occupational upgrading, subjective financial well-being, food security, ration claiming, job search efforts, remittances, index of economic well-being, emigration within high migration propensity households.

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

See attached pre-analysis plan.

Experimental Design

We will conduct our intervention with a subset of the survey sample covered by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), which has collected panel data on a nationally representative sample of approximately 170,000 households since 2014. We will add a module on PDS portability to CMIE's questionnaire for a random subset of their sample. This will enable us to conduct an information intervention and utilize the rich panel data that CMIE regularly collects on employment, migration, and welfare, at minimal cost and at a large scale.

Experimental Design Details

Not available

Randomization Method

Treatment status was assigned at the cluster level using a stratified permutation method. Strata were formed from the following features: state identifier, an urban dummy, a dummy for clusters with an above-median share of households that had sent an emigrant anywhere since 2017, and a dummy for clusters with an above-median poverty rate (defined as being below the 40th percentile of per-adult-equivalent household consumption). The Stata command randtreat was used, assigning misfits using the global method.

Randomization Unit

Clusters of CMIE's primary sampling units. A PSU roughly corresponds to a village in rural areas, and a town/city in urban areas.

Was the treatment clustered?

Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

Approximately 1,740 clusters

Sample size: planned number of observations

Approximately 62,130 households

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

Treatment: 892 clusters, 30,674 households
Control: 848 clusters, 31,456 households

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

At 90% power and 1% significance, our minimum detectable effect for the increase in the share of households with a migrant is about 1 percentage point off a base of 45% (std dev = 0.498). That is, we are powered to detect a change from 45% to 46% or higher. Our minimum detectable effect for monthly per adult equivalent household consumption is 2.9 rupees on a base of 137 (about 2%, std dev = 76). Our minimum detectable effect for monthly per adult equivalent household income is 11.4 rupees on a base of 261 (about 4%, std dev = 287).

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB