Inspection Risk Notifications at Oil and Gas Facilities in Colorado

Last registered on October 21, 2021
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Inspection Risk Notifications at Oil and Gas Facilities in Colorado
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0008405
Initial registration date
October 20, 2021

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 21, 2021, 12:31 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Ludovica Gazze
Affiliation
University of Warwick
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Michael Greenstone
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Thomas Covert
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Olga Rostapshova
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2021-10-01
End date
2025-12-31
Keywords
Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
field experiment, predictive analytics, emissions, air pollution, regulation, machine learning
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
In 2014, Colorado introduced regulations requiring oil and gas companies to identify and to fix methane leaks, and to install equipment to limit or prevent emissions. Yet firms and regulators might be unable to comprehensively monitor these emissions, and still rely on infrequent and expensive on-site facility inspections to detect leaks. This study plans to leverage predictive analytics and remote sensing technologies to test the effectiveness of new targeting and inspection strategies on reducing methane emissions.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Covert, Thomas et al. 2021. "Inspection Risk Notifications at Oil and Gas Facilities in Colorado." AEA RCT Registry. October 21. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.8405-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2021-10-21
Intervention End Date
2022-09-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcome of the experiment is a measure of methane emissions that can reasonably be attributed to an oil and gas facility based on meteorological conditions from a remote sensing gas analyzer, as well as binary indicators of emissions found at a facility from remote sensing and regulatory inspections.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The aim of this experiment is to determine whether notifications to oil and gas operators regarding individual facilities’ likelihood of displaying unintended methane leaks and related higher inspection risk reduce facility-level emissions levels. Facilities’ likelihood of displaying unintended methane leaks is estimated by a predictive analytics model. Operators will receive a notification from the regulator informing them that certain facilities under their purview have been flagged by the model as being at a higher risk of displaying methane emissions and are therefore subject to a higher inspection likelihood during the upcoming inspection year.
Experimental Design Details
The RCT will be conducted among upstream oil and gas facilities in Colorado that are eligible for inspection by CDPHE in IY2022. The study will focus on facilities in Weld County to maximize efficiency of data collection, and our analysis sample includes operators with any facilities in Weld County. We will follow all inspection-eligible facilities that belong to these firms, both in and outside of Weld County. Each of these facilities will be placed into "high-risk" and “low-risk” groups according to their ML-model-predicted risk scores. For each operator, facilities with a risk score above the operator’s median score (“high-risk” facilities) will be eligible for randomization.
Randomization Method
Randomization will be completed in an office using a computer.
Randomization Unit
Randomization will be completed at the facility level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1,105 facilities
Sample size: planned number of observations
1,105 facilities, but we might have multiple observations per facility depending on remote sensing capabilities
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
553 treatment facilities and 552 control facilities
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Chicago Social and Behavioral Sciences IRB
IRB Approval Date
2021-10-12
IRB Approval Number
IRB21-1506
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials