What drives violations of the independence axiom? An experimental analysis on the role of decision confidence.

Last registered on November 28, 2021

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
What drives violations of the independence axiom? An experimental analysis on the role of decision confidence.
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0008615
Initial registration date
November 23, 2021
Last updated
November 28, 2021, 6:16 PM EST

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Caltech

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2021-12-01
End date
2021-12-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
A vast experimental literature has documented violations of the independence axiom in choices under risk.
Several alternative theoretical decision models have been proposed to rationalize this robust evidence. One way to evaluate these models is to study their foundation in the psychology of decision-making. This paper proposes a laboratory experiment to investigate whether individuals violate the independence axiom when not confident about their preferences. Moreover, we study whether the descriptive power of the independence axiom increases when only nondegenerate lotteries over common outcomes are involved, as suggested by the literature. Finally, we explore the relationship among violations of the independence axiom, decision confidence, and risk aversion.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Lucia, Aldo. 2021. "What drives violations of the independence axiom? An experimental analysis on the role of decision confidence.." AEA RCT Registry. November 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.8615-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2021-12-01
Intervention End Date
2021-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
We refer to the Analysis document for a detailed description of the outcome variables of interest.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Subjects in the experiment answer questions about a variety of pairwise comparisons between lotteries over three possible prizes: $1, $10, and $20.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
We plan to recruit the participants on the online platform Prolific.co
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
300 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
300 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Three treatments. 100 individuals for each treatment.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Caltech Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2021-10-28
IRB Approval Number
21-1140
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials