We have greatly benefitted from science and medicine. However, we have also incurred costs related to the development of science and medicine. The side effects of medicine are often expected. While we are likely to consider the tradeoffs between the benefits and costs implicitly, such implicit decision-making is difficult to identify because costs such as side effects of a specific medicine are often correlated with individuals' background characteristics. However, arm pain due to COVID-19 vaccination, particularly vaccines provided by Moderna, is not currently considered to be systematically related to chronic diseases. This study capitalizes on this seemingly random cost of medicine to identify whether the cost affects individuals' trust in science, medicine, and authorities.
We investigate whether individuals who experienced arm pain immediately after the first or second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine changed their trust in science, medicine, and authorities.
3. Setting and design
3.1 Panel survey
In February 2021, before COVID-19 vaccination was implemented, we asked 15,000 Japanese adult respondents about their general trust in vaccination, vaccination licensing, and doctors. We employ the same respondents, excluding attrition, and ask the same questions.
3.1 A natural experiment
We ask which vaccine the respondent received and whether they experienced arm pain as a side effect of vaccination. We also ask about the respondent's trust in science, scientists, vaccination, vaccination licensing, and doctors who administer a vaccine.
Between the last survey in February 2021 and this survey, the respondents had opportunities to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Some of them experienced arm pain due to the vaccination. We consider that the arm pain is likely to be random; therefore arm pain due to COVID-19 vaccines was our treatment.
5.1 Whether arm pain due to COVID-19 vaccination affects attitudes toward science and medicine
We investigate whether experiencing arm pain due to COVID-19 vaccination affected attitudes toward science, medicine, and authorities.
5.2 Whether the arm pains due to COVID-19 vaccination influences attitudes toward science and medicine
Using the sample of respondents who participated in our survey in February 2021, we investigate whether experiencing arm pain due to
COVID-19 vaccination led to changes in attitudes toward science, medicine, and authorities.