COVID Arm: A Random Shock to Trust in Science, Medicine, and Authorities

Last registered on April 01, 2022

View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

COVID Arm: A Random Shock to Trust in Science, Medicine, and Authorities

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0008822

Initial registration date

February 08, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

February 14, 2022, 12:13 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated

April 01, 2022, 4:42 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country

Japan

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

Masaki Nakabayashi

Affiliation

The University of Tokyo

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Keisuke Kawata

PI Affiliation

The University of Tokyo

Contact Investigator

PI Name

Taiyo Fukai

PI Affiliation

The University of Tokyo

Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status

Completed

Start date

2022-03-07

End date

2022-03-22

Keywords

Behavior, Governance, Health, Welfare

Additional Keywords

JEL code(s)

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

1. Motivation
We have greatly benefitted from science and medicine. However, we have also incurred costs related to the development of science and medicine. The side effects of medicine are often expected. While we are likely to consider the tradeoffs between the benefits and costs implicitly, such implicit decision-making is difficult to identify because costs such as side effects of a specific medicine are often correlated with individuals' background characteristics. However, arm pain due to COVID-19 vaccination, particularly vaccines provided by Moderna, is not currently considered to be systematically related to chronic diseases. This study capitalizes on this seemingly random cost of medicine to identify whether the cost affects individuals' trust in science, medicine, and authorities.

2. Objective
We investigate whether individuals who experienced arm pain immediately after the first or second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine changed their trust in science, medicine, and authorities.

3. Setting and design
3.1 Panel survey
In February 2021, before COVID-19 vaccination was implemented, we asked 15,000 Japanese adult respondents about their general trust in vaccination, vaccination licensing, and doctors. We employ the same respondents, excluding attrition, and ask the same questions.

3.1 A natural experiment
We ask which vaccine the respondent received and whether they experienced arm pain as a side effect of vaccination. We also ask about the respondent's trust in science, scientists, vaccination, vaccination licensing, and doctors who administer a vaccine.

4. Treatment
Between the last survey in February 2021 and this survey, the respondents had opportunities to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Some of them experienced arm pain due to the vaccination. We consider that the arm pain is likely to be random; therefore arm pain due to COVID-19 vaccines was our treatment.

5. Results
5.1 Whether arm pain due to COVID-19 vaccination affects attitudes toward science and medicine
We investigate whether experiencing arm pain due to COVID-19 vaccination affected attitudes toward science, medicine, and authorities.

5.2 Whether the arm pains due to COVID-19 vaccination influences attitudes toward science and medicine
Using the sample of respondents who participated in our survey in February 2021, we investigate whether experiencing arm pain due to
COVID-19 vaccination led to changes in attitudes toward science, medicine, and authorities.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Fukai, Taiyo, Keisuke Kawata and Masaki Nakabayashi. 2022. "COVID Arm: A Random Shock to Trust in Science, Medicine, and Authorities." AEA RCT Registry. April 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.8822-1.1

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

During the time period between the survey in February 2021 and the current survey, Japanese adults were vaccinated against COVID-19. Some of them experienced arm pain due to the vaccination. We consider that the arm pain is likely to be random given the background characteristics we survey; therefore, respondents with arms pains due to COVID-19 vaccination comprise our treatment group.

Intervention Start Date

2022-03-07

Intervention End Date

2022-03-22

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

We investigate whether having experienced arm pain due to COVID-19 vaccination will have affected respondents' trust in science, medicine, or authorities.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

1. Survey design
1.1 Treatment: Panel survey of trust in COVID-19 vaccines, medicine, and authorities
We conducted an internet survey by recruiting a nonprobability sample of 15,000 Japanese adults in February 2021, prior to COVID-19 vaccine implementation, and asked about their trust in the following: (1) vaccination in general; (2) doctors in charge of vaccine administration; (3) and authorities in charge of COVID-19 vaccine licensing. We ask the same questions in this survey to investigate whether having experienced arm pains due to COVID-19 vaccinations has updated their trust in vaccination in general, COVID-19 vaccine licensing, and authorities.

1.2 Treatment: Whether respondents experienced arm pain due to COVID-19 vaccination
Due to attrition from our survey in February 2021, we also investigate whether respondents who experienced arm pain due to COVID-19 vaccination affected respondents' trust in science, medicine, vaccination in general, vaccination licensing, or authorities by comparing respondents who did not experience arm pain due to COVID-19 vaccination in this survey.

2. Background characteristics
We survey whether respondents trust vaccination in general, received COVID-19 vaccine, experienced side effects, experienced COVID-19 infection, and have had chronic diseases, as well as whom they believe in regard to obtaining vaccination advice. Additionally, the survey collects demographic characteristics, educational backgrounds, income, household income, partisanship, self-conceived right-leaning, preference for the size of government, and self-conceived social status.

Experimental Design Details

Randomization Method

Our key randomized variable is whether respondents who were vaccinated against COVID-19 experienced arm pain due to the COVID-19 vaccination. We tentatively assume that the side effect of arm pain is likely to arise independently of background characteristics variables collected by this survey.

Randomization Unit

15,000 individuals.

Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

15,000 individuals

Sample size: planned number of observations

15,000 individuals.

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

The treatment group includes those who were vaccinated against COVID-19 and experienced arm pain due to the vaccination, and this number is only known after the second (this) survey.

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB