Ambiguity attitudes of individuals and groups revisited: An (online) laboratory experiment on natural events in the gain and loss domain.

Last registered on February 04, 2022

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Ambiguity attitudes of individuals and groups revisited: An (online) laboratory experiment on natural events in the gain and loss domain.
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0008927
Initial registration date
February 04, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 04, 2022, 3:19 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Universität Hamburg

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Universität Hamburg

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2022-02-08
End date
2022-03-04
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
In this trial, we want to analyze the differences between individuals' and groups' ambiguity attitudes. For this purpose, we look not only at the gain domain but also at the loss domain, since ambiguity attitudes can also be influenced by loss aversions. Furthermore, we try to find out exploratively how the groups arrived at a decision and which factors might have influenced the group decision (and thus potentially also the ambiguity attitude).
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Lange, Andreas and Aljoscha Minnich. 2022. "Ambiguity attitudes of individuals and groups revisited: An (online) laboratory experiment on natural events in the gain and loss domain.." AEA RCT Registry. February 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.8927
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We study ambiguity attitudes at the individual level as well as how they are aggregated into group decisions. We investigate decisions in both gain and loss domain. In total, we conduct four different treatments in a 2x2 between-group design: individual-gain, group-gain, individual-loss, group-loss. Each of the groups consist of three people. The participants have to decide at what probability they prefer a risky bet over an ambiguous bet. The event for the ambiguous bet is based on the temperature in one unknown city on a known date at a specific point in time. Individuals and groups have to make six decisions (for every event) for the city. The city will be randomly drawn at the end per person or group from a worldwide selection.
Intervention Start Date
2022-02-08
Intervention End Date
2022-03-04

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Baillon et al. ‘s ambiguity aversion index as well as their ambiguity-generated insensitivity index.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Baillon et al. (2018, p. 1840) describe the ambiguity aversion index as follows:
The ambiguity aversion index measures the well-known aversion to ambiguity and is often taken to be normative. The ambiguity-generated insensitivity index captures the degree of ambiguity, that is, the perceived level of ambiguity. The higher this level is, the less the decision maker discriminates between different degrees of likelihood, and the more these degrees are treated alike, as one blur. The second index thus also captures insensitivity toward likelihood changes

Baillon, A., Huang, Z., Selim, A., & Wakker, P. P. (2018). Measuring ambiguity attitudes for all (natural) events. Econometrica, 86(5), 1839-1858.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Chats of the groups and the individuals (individuals could "chat" only with themselves)

Cognitive reflection test (5 questions, with positive or negative incentives depending on gain or loss treatment).

Control variables from a short questionnaire at the end of the survey:
• Demographic variables (age, gender, income, children (yes,no), faculty, semester count, vaccination status, number of experiment participations)
• Ten-Item Personality Inventory
• Risk preferences (general, weather domain),
• Ambiguity preferences (survey method questions),
• Task comprehensibility.

Questions about group decision making (group solution finding, consideration of own preferences in group decision making).
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Participants receive the general experimental instructions and the description of the tasks and proceed to answer two control questions. The actual decisions are based on the method of Baillon et al. (2018). To assess ambiguity attitudes, participants fill in six tables for temperature events of an unknown city. The groups can chat together, while the individuals can chat with themselves. The groups have three chances per table to reach a common solution (unanimity). Participants then answer five questions of a cognitive reflection task (get paid additional/ less 2 Euro per right/wrong answer). In the end, there is a questionnaire concerning demographic variables, personality and behavioral attitudes. On the last page, the payout is revealed. The payment of the participants consists of a starting amount of 10 Euro, a payment of one line of one of the six choice table of ambiguity tasks (either plus 10 Euro or minus 10 Euro; this is randomly determined) and the answering of cognitive reflection tasks to balance the payments.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization at the beginning of each session by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
360 participants
Sample size: planned number of observations
360 participants: 45 independent observations per treatment, i.e., 45 participants per individual treatment and 45 groups (135 participants) per group treatment.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
45 Individual Gain
45 Individual Loss
135 (45 groups) Group Gain
135 (45 groups) Group Loss
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials