Conservatism and Bayesian Updating

Last registered on February 14, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Conservatism and Bayesian Updating
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0008976
Initial registration date
February 14, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 14, 2022, 1:23 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Switzerland
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Johannes Buckenmaier
Affiliation
University of Zurich
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Alexander Ritschel
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Michele Garagnani
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Carlos Alós-Ferrer
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2022-02-16
End date
2022-03-31
Keywords
Behavior, Lab
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This preregistration describes a laboratory experiment to be conducted at the University of Zurich. The experiment investigates the conservatism bias in a belief-updating paradigm. We describe the experimental design, the variables of interest, the hypotheses, and sample size.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Alós-Ferrer, Carlos et al. 2022. "Conservatism and Bayesian Updating." AEA RCT Registry. February 14. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.8976-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2022-02-16
Intervention End Date
2022-03-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Proportion of correct answers in conflict, alignment, and neutral situations; response times of correct decisions/errors in conflict, alignment, and neutral situations
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This preregistration describes a laboratory experiment to be conducted at the University of Zurich. The experiment investigates the conservatism bias in a belief-updating paradigm. We describe the experimental design, the variables of interest, the hypotheses, and sample size.
Experimental Design Details
See attached document.
Randomization Method
Randomization by computer
Randomization Unit
All subjects will face the same experiment but stimuli blocks will be presented in reverse order (counterbalancing) for half of the subjects (randomly assigned to subjects).
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
We will run sessions with 36 invited subjects each until we have 160 or more subjects.
Sample size: planned number of observations
We will run sessions with 36 invited subjects each until we have 160 or more subjects.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
We will run sessions with 36 invited subjects each until we have 160 or more subjects.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Human Subjects Committee of the Faculty of Economics, Business Administration, and Information Technology
IRB Approval Date
2021-07-27
IRB Approval Number
OEC IRB # 2021-062
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials