Can the first vote change people's belief updating process? An experiment after the 2021 referendum in Taiwan

Last registered on February 16, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Can the first vote change people's belief updating process? An experiment after the 2021 referendum in Taiwan
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0008978
Initial registration date
February 14, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 16, 2022, 9:58 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Taiwan, Province of China
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
ChienHsun Lin
Affiliation
UCSB
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Ming-Jen Lin
PI Affiliation
National Taiwan University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2021-12-20
End date
2022-03-14
Keywords
Behavior, Electoral
Additional Keywords
belief updating, referendum, political decisions
JEL code(s)
D83, D72, C93
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We use the 2021 referendum in Taiwan as the background to see how people will update their voting decision after receiving the new information. We randomly assign the information articles about the referendum to the subjects, which can be supporting, opposing, or neutral to the propositions voted. We want to examine whether the "first vote" can change how people update beliefs and political decisions.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Lin, Ming-Jen and ChienHsun Lin. 2022. "Can the first vote change people's belief updating process? An experiment after the 2021 referendum in Taiwan." AEA RCT Registry. February 16. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.8978-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The subjects reads random news articles about the propositions appeared in the 2021 referendum.
Intervention Start Date
2022-02-21
Intervention End Date
2022-03-14

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The difference in (hypothetical) voting decision after the information between eligible voters and ineligible voters.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
After the information, we ask the subject again about their voting decision on the same propositions if the referendum were to be held again. Then we compare the vote shares of the propositions between eligible voters and ineligible voters.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
The degree of support to each proposition
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
From 1-10, the subject can express how much they support the proposition.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Each subject will receive some information about the propositions in the 2021 referendum.
Experimental Design Details
The subjects will be split into 2 groups: eligible and ineligible voters, based on their eligibility on the referendum day. Within each group, the treatment articles will be randomly assigned. For each proposition, 1 out of the 3 treatment articles are randomly and independently assigned to the subjects.
Randomization Method
The randomization is accomplished with Qualtrics.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
900 subjects
Sample size: planned number of observations
900 subjects.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
For each proposition, 300 subjects will be assigned.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Assuming the correlation coefficient of the pre-information and post-information decisions at 0.5 and 0.05 of the baseline persuasive effect, the MDE of the interested effect is a 7% additional increase in vote share for ineligible voters.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Research Ethics Committee, National Taiwan University
IRB Approval Date
2021-03-15
IRB Approval Number
202102HS016
IRB Name
UCSB HUMAN SUBJECT COMMITTEE
IRB Approval Date
2021-09-03
IRB Approval Number
23-21-0388
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials