Expectations and monetary policy

Last registered on December 19, 2023
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Expectations and monetary policy
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009172
Initial registration date
March 30, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
March 31, 2022, 3:25 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
December 19, 2023, 11:21 PM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Edward Knotek
Affiliation
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2022-03-03
End date
2024-06-30
Keywords
Other
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study the effects that monetary policy has on consumers' expectations.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Knotek , Edward. 2023. "Expectations and monetary policy." AEA RCT Registry. December 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9172-2.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Descriptions of outcomes from meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee; a placebo
Intervention (Hidden)
We provide descriptions of outcomes from meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2022 after five meetings in which the FOMC raised the federal funds rate by varying amounts. The interventions include very short descriptions of the action(s) taken, while other interventions include a one sentence description for why the FOMC took the action. A separate intervention takes the form of a placebo.
Intervention Start Date
2022-03-17
Intervention End Date
2022-10-26

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Expectations for macroeconomic variables (inflation, GDP) and household variables (personal income)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
How information on monetary policy affects expectations
Experimental Design Details
We present information about monetary policy to individuals to see whether and how that information changes their expectations over macroeconomic variables and household variables.
Randomization Method
Randomization done by computer
Randomization Unit
Randomization over individual survey respondents
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
6000 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
6000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1200 individuals per treatment/control
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Advarra IRB
IRB Approval Date
2022-03-03
IRB Approval Number
Pro00060042
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
October 26, 2022, 12:00 +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
October 26, 2022, 12:00 +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
29833 individuals in total, spread across five waves covering the outcomes of the March, May, June, July and September 2022 meetings of the FOMC
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
No
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
29833 individuals in total
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
1500 to 2000 individuals per treatment/control, depending on the wave
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
No
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials