Eliciting the Marginal Propensity to Consume in Surveys

Last registered on February 23, 2023

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Eliciting the Marginal Propensity to Consume in Surveys
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009231
Initial registration date
May 08, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 09, 2022, 8:33 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
February 23, 2023, 5:59 AM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
European University Institute

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Institute for Fiscal Studies
PI Affiliation
University of Oxford
PI Affiliation
University of Essex

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2022-06-08
End date
2022-10-15
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
A randomized survey experiment contrasting alternative formats for eliciting the marginal propensity to consume using questions about hypothetical windfalls.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Crossley, Thomas et al. 2023. "Eliciting the Marginal Propensity to Consume in Surveys." AEA RCT Registry. February 23. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9231-1.1
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2022-06-08
Intervention End Date
2022-10-15

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The marginal propensity would be computed as the change in spending reporterd over the amount of the hypothetical income windfall.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Savings and debt responses to a hypothetical windfall
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We randomly split the Innovation Panel of Understanding Society into groups, and to ask respondents within each group different variants of a question about how their spending, saving and debt responses would respond to receipt of a hypothetical windfall.

In one half of the sample we would ask how much individuals would change their spending after an initial routing question (“would you increase spending, decrease spending or leave spending the same?”). In the second half of the sample, we would immediately ask for a pound change in spending without this routing. Within these treatments, we would also randomly assign individuals to either report how their spending, saving, debt and transfer behaviour would change over the next three months, or to report how it would change over the next twelve months and to either report how they would respond to either a £500 or a £2500 windfall.

We will then compare response across different treatments.
Experimental Design Details
We will randomly split individuals into eight equally sized groups of households in the Innovation Panel of Understanding Society. Each group of households will be asked a different question.

Let the groups be called treatment groups 1a-1d, treatment groups 2a to 2d. Those in treatment group 1 will first be asked whether a windfall would lead them to increase their spending, decrease spending or keep spending the same before being asked for the amount in pounds and then being asked whether unspent funds would be used to save, pay down debt, give more to friend and family or receive less from friends and family. In 1a individuals will be asked how their spending would change in response to a £500 windfall over the next 3 months, in 1b they will be asked about how their spending would change in response to a £500 windfall in the next 12 months. In 1c individuals will be asked how their spending would change in response to a £2500 windfall over the next 3 months, in 1d they will be asked about how their spending would change in response to a £2500 windfall in the next 12 months.

Individuals in treatment group 2 will be asked how much they would spend straightaway without the initial routing question. Then they will be asked whether unspent funds would be used to save, pay down debt, give more to friend and family or receive less from friends and family as before. In 2a individuals will be asked how their spending would change in response to a £500 windfall over the next 3 months, in 2b they will be asked about how their spending would change in response to a £500 windfall in the next 12 months. In 2c individuals will be asked how their spending would change in response to a £2500 windfall over the next 3 months, in 2d they will be asked about how their spending would change in response to a £2500 windfall in the next 12 months.
Randomization Method
The randomisation to treatment will be a simple random allocation of households within primary sampling units, such that all members of a household are assigned to the same treatment.
Randomization Unit
Household
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1,500 households
Sample size: planned number of observations
Aproximately 2,000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Aproximately 190 households per treatment arm (1,500/8=187.5)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Essex University Ethics Sub-Committee 1
IRB Approval Date
2022-05-06
IRB Approval Number
ETH2122-0939

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials