Expectations Under Incomplete Information

Last registered on May 03, 2022


Trial Information

General Information

Expectations Under Incomplete Information
Initial registration date
April 29, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 03, 2022, 9:39 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.



Primary Investigator

University of Oregon

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Oregon

Additional Trial Information

In development
Start date
End date
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
We consider how expectations about an individual’s mastery of a skill depend on a signal of the individual's mastery of a different skill, and whether this expectation differs across race and gender. To this end, we have designed a survey task in which research subjects make an incentivized guess about a math test score given information on a reading test score (and vice versa), when race and gender are evident in a photograph of a test taker.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Raze, Kyle and Glen Waddell. 2022. "Expectations Under Incomplete Information." AEA RCT Registry. May 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9329-1.0
Experimental Details


Intervention Start Date
Intervention End Date

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcome is a subject's guess about an individual's test score on the math or reading section of the SAT. Guesses are constrained to the domain of SAT section scores (all multiples of 10 between 200 and 800).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Subjects will see 10 randomly selected individuals with a score on either the math or reading section of the SAT and then be asked to guess each individual's score on "the other" section. All subjects will see a fixed number of individuals from 8 race-by-gender groups, but the order in which these individuals appear will be randomized.

Information about test scores, race, and gender will be drawn from publicly available data on the 1997 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Each individual will be represented by a randomly selected portrait from the Chicago Face Database (Ma et al., 2015) and a randomly selected name from a list of common names associated with that race and gender.

At the end of the experiment, one of the individuals will be chosen at random and the payment a subject receives will be based on how close the subject's guess was to that individual's other score.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization will be done on a shinyapps.io server using R.
Randomization Unit
Randomizing scores shown to subjects (within-subject).
Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
We plan to recruit between 200 and 500 subjects.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Each subject will make 10 guesses, yielding between 200*10 = 2000 and 500*10 = 5000 subject-period observations.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
We expect between 400 and 1000 observations for the white male stimulus, between 400 and 1000 for the white female stimulus, between 200 and 500 for the Black male stimulus, between 200 and 500 for the Black female stimulus, between 200 and 500 for the Latino male stimulus, between 200 and 500 for the Latina female stimulus, between 200 and 500 for the Asian male stimulus, and between 200 and 500 for the Asian female stimulus.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Oregon Research Compliance Services
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number


Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Is the intervention completed?
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials