Irrational Belief in Mean Reversion and the Disposition Effect

Last registered on July 12, 2022

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Irrational Belief in Mean Reversion and the Disposition Effect
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009435
Initial registration date
July 05, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 12, 2022, 2:00 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Zurich

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Zurich
PI Affiliation
University of Zurich
PI Affiliation
University of Zurich

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2022-07-07
End date
2022-08-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This preregistration describes a laboratory experiment to be conducted at the University
of Zurich. The experiment investigates the disposition effect. We describe the experimental
design, the variables of interest, the hypotheses, and sample size.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Alos-Ferrer, Carlos et al. 2022. "Irrational Belief in Mean Reversion and the Disposition Effect." AEA RCT Registry. July 12. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9435-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2022-07-07
Intervention End Date
2022-08-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Proportion of Gains Realized (PGR);
Proportion of Losses Realized (PLR)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
(Number of realized gains)/(number of realized gains + number of paper gains);
(Number of realized losses)/(number of realized losses + number of paper losses)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This preregistration describes a laboratory experiment to be conducted at the University
of Zurich. The experiment investigates the disposition effect. We describe the experimental
design, the variables of interest, the hypotheses, and sample size.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by computer. (Price path was generated by computer). Computer counterbalanced which order subjects saw the trial sequence (even/odd-numbered subjects saw the sequence in normal/reversed order). Computer selected for each subject randomly and individually which round was paid. No other difference between subjects (no treatment vs. control condition).
Randomization Unit
Each indiviual sees the same randomly pregenerated price path.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
200 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
200 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
200 individuals
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Human Subjects Committee of the Faculty of Economics, Business Administration, and Information Technology, University of Zurich
IRB Approval Date
2022-05-04
IRB Approval Number
OEC IRB # 2022-037

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials