Building Pathways out of Poverty for Ultra-poor Internally Displaced People in Baidoa

The graduation model is a process in which the project participants in Baidoa will be able to reduce their reliance on safety net programs and build income-earning activities that will enable them to sustain themselves without or with minimal external subsidies. The project aims to reduce the overreliance on external aid of the ultra-poor by addressing needs at both the household and community levels. At the household level, the project will seek to strengthen two sources of economic self-reliance: 1) individuals’/households’ access to economic capital and 2) their relationships with families, their communities, and the macrosocial system to acquire social and human capital. At the community level, the project will empower the community to protect their livelihoods from shocks through disaster risk reduction (DRR) and preparedness.

The project starts off with participant identification and cash transfers, both unconditional and conditional, to stabilize ultra-poor households’ food security. Savings groups will be established or strengthened at the same time to cultivate a culture of saving. These groups will serve as platforms for skills transfer, social cohesion, and transformation, as well as economic inclusion. Income generating capacity will be supported through vocational and financial training and transfer of capital. Throughout the project cycle, participants will receive coaching support on social capital mobilization, financial literacy, and business facilitation.

2022-06-30

2024-11-01

Consumption; household asset index; household food security as measured by the Household Hunger Scale (HHS)

This evaluation will be a randomized controlled trial using randomization at the household level. This strategy is feasible in this program setting because resource constraints imply that only a subset of eligible households in the project sites can be served by World Vision programming. Randomly identifying individuals who will be included in the program is a fair and ethical strategy to allocate program benefits. At the same time, the outcomes of those individuals who are randomized to the control arm (who do not receive World Vision services) will be carefully tracked in order to generate evidence around the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of graduation model programming.

The sampling frame for the evaluation was a sample of approximately 6,050 households identified as eligible for programming in a separate beneficiary census conducted by World Vision. Households will then be randomized to one of two arms. In the first arm, 5,000 households will receive a full set of graduation model services. In the second, control arm, 1,500 households will not be offered any targeted services from World Vision. The evaluation sample targeted in baseline, midline and endline surveys will include a random subsample from households assigned to treatment (3,000 treatment households) and the full sample of households assigned to control.

Key indicators collected at baseline, midline and endline will include variables summarizing household program participation, economic welfare, food security, and investment in human capital.

Not available

Randomization was conducted in Stata by the research team.

Household

No

4475 households

4475 households

1447 are in the control arm
1513 are in the first treatment arm (individual coaching)
1515 are in the second treatment arm (group-based coaching)

Baidoa analysis plan final.pdf