Peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations

Last registered on May 25, 2022

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009479
Initial registration date
May 22, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 23, 2022, 7:24 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
May 25, 2022, 5:16 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2022-05-25
End date
2022-06-18
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We examine peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations. We design a large-scale international survey among 1500 experts working in 130 countries, asking about their expectations about inflation rates for the years 2022 (short-term expectations), 2023 (mid-term expectations), and 2026 (long-term expectations).
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Dräger, Lena et al. 2022. "Peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations." AEA RCT Registry. May 25. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9479
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2022-06-08
Intervention End Date
2022-06-18

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
inflation expectations
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We examine peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations. We design a large-scale international survey among 1500 experts working in 130 countries, asking about their expectations about inflation rates for the years 2022 (short-term expectations), 2023 (mid-term expectations), and 2026 (long-term expectations).
Experimental Design Details
We examine peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations. We design a large-scale international survey among 1500 experts working in 130 countries, asking about their expectations about inflation rates for the years 2022 (short-term expectations), 2023 (mid-term expectations), and 2026 (long-term expectations). The sample is randomly split into two waves. The first wave will be implemented between 25 May 2022 and 4 June 2022. The follow-up will run from 8 June 2022 to 18 June 2022. We generate information about macroeconomic expectations in the first wave which is used as information treatments in the second wave. We will use information of peers’ expected inflation rates and priorities of macroeconomic policies as information treatments.

Participants in the second wave are randomly split in control and treated experts. We will have four treatment arms. Individual treatment is also randomly assigned across experts. Treated experts receive information about the expected inflation rates and priorities of macroeconomic policies (low unemployment, high economic growth, low inflation, exchange rate stability) of their peers surveyed in the first wave. We disentangle information about average inflation rates and priorities of macroeconomic policies worldwide and in the region the individual expert is working in.

The hypothesis to be examined in the experiment is that there are peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations. We expect experts that have been informed about the expectations of their peers to report expectations that are closer to the peers than experts in the control group. We also expect the effect to be stronger when experts are provided with information of peers in the geographic region of their host country rather than when being informed about the estimates of global peers. We also ask experts to give policy recommendations. We expect that those experts who receive the signal that inflation is a concern to their peers are more likely to recommend policy intervention of their central banks to tackle inflation.

Our survey also includes open-ended questions that elicit the narratives and subjective macroeconomic models of respondents. We examine whether peer effects also influence the way participants think about inflation.

Sample size: 1500 (expected number of respondents)

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
500 experts (first wave)
200 control experts (second wave)
200 treated with expected inflation rates (world average)
200 treated with expected inflation rates (regional average)
200 treated with macroeconomic priorities (world average)
200 treated with expected macroeconomic priorities (regional average)
Randomization Method
randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
experts
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
..
Sample size: planned number of observations
1500 experts (expected number of respondents)
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
..
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials