Beliefs and Portfolios: Causal Evidence

Last registered on June 15, 2022

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Beliefs and Portfolios: Causal Evidence
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009576
Initial registration date
June 12, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 15, 2022, 10:16 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Chicago

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2020-09-01
End date
2020-12-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We investigate how households form expectations about the stock market. We treat German individuals with different information items related to the stock market, such as past performance, or price-earnings ratio. We then evaluate how individuals revise their stock market expectations in response to the treatments.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Beutel, Johannes and Michael Weber. 2022. "Beliefs and Portfolios: Causal Evidence." AEA RCT Registry. June 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9576
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We treat individuals with different information items related to the stock market, such as past performance, or price-earnings ratio. We then evaluate how individuals revise their stock market expectations in response to the treatments. The RCT is embedded in a representative survey of German households.
Intervention Start Date
2020-09-01
Intervention End Date
2020-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Expected stock return
Expected dividend growth
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
6 groups in the first wave in September 2020 randomly assigned (5 treatment groups and 1 control group)
4 groups in the second wave in December 2020 randomly assigned (3 treatment groups and 1 control group)
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Each survey respondent is assigned to one of the 6 groups (first wave) or 3 groups (second wave)
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
no clusters, 1 representative survey of 4,000 German households/individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
4,000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 660 respondents per treatment arm in the first wave, approximately 1,000 respondent per treatment arm in the second wave.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials