Rational inattention, macroeconomic expectation, and consumption-investment behavior

Last registered on July 08, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Rational inattention, macroeconomic expectation, and consumption-investment behavior
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009697
Initial registration date
July 05, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 08, 2022, 9:23 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Penghui Yin
Affiliation
Shandong University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Li Tang
PI Affiliation
Middlesex University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2022-07-04
End date
2022-07-31
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
belief formation, macroeconomic expectations
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
A key premise of models of rational inattention is that, due to limited attentioin, decision-makers pay attention to relevant information and ignore irrelevant news. What information do consumers care about when making economic decisions? Do they use the information they pay attention to when making macroeconomic expectations and consumption-saving decisions? To answer these questions, we conduct a survey with randomized control trail. Our results can also show whether consumers have Phillips Curve, Okun's Law, Taylor's Rule in their minds.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Tang, Li and Penghui Yin. 2022. "Rational inattention, macroeconomic expectation, and consumption-investment behavior." AEA RCT Registry. July 08. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9697-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2022-07-18
Intervention End Date
2022-07-25

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Macroeconomic variables that consumers pay attention to when making consumption decisions
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The experiment proceeds as follows: First, we ask what macroeconomic variables (such as inflation, unemployment rate, GDP growth rate, and interest rate) do consumers care about when making consumption-saving decisions and we measure people's beliefs about the interested variables. We then generate exogenous variation in macroeconomic forecasts from professional forecasters. While some respondents receive a high value of forecast, others receive a low value of forecast, which differ due to sampling variation and procedural differences. Thereafter, we measure people's expectations regarding their interested macroeconomic variables. Finally, we measure people's expectations regarding other macroeconomic variables
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
computer
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1000
Sample size: planned number of observations
1000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
half respondents receive high professional forecast and half respondents receive low professional forecast
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials