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Field
Trial Status
|
Before
on_going
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After
completed
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|
Field
Trial End Date
|
Before
July 31, 2022
|
After
December 01, 2022
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|
Field
Last Published
|
Before
July 08, 2022 09:23 AM
|
After
February 18, 2025 11:40 AM
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|
Field
Study Withdrawn
|
Before
|
After
No
|
|
Field
Intervention Completion Date
|
Before
|
After
September 29, 2022
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|
Field
Data Collection Complete
|
Before
|
After
Yes
|
|
Field
Is there a restricted access data set available on request?
|
Before
|
After
Yes
|
|
Field
Restricted Data Contact
|
Before
|
After
[email protected]
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|
Field
Program Files
|
Before
|
After
No
|
|
Field
Data Collection Completion Date
|
Before
|
After
November 10, 2022
|
|
Field
Is data available for public use?
|
Before
|
After
No
|
|
Field
Intervention (Public)
|
Before
|
After
Intervention 1: we provide two groups of respondents randomly with inflation forecast made by professional forecasters.
Intervention 2: we provide two groups of respondents randomly with two kinds of inflation rise, one due to a supply-side shock, and one due to a demand-side shock; then for each group three subgroups of respondents randomly with instructions of making predictions of unemployment rate, one with no instruction, one with instruction of making predictions using emotion and one with instruction of making predictions considering consequences.
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|
Field
Primary Outcomes (Explanation)
|
Before
|
After
1. people who evaluate inflation as more relevant for their decision making are more likely to update their expectations toward provided information (professional forecasts).
2. When considering consequences of an increase in inflation rate due to supply-side shock, people expect higher unemployment rate than those make forecasts with emotion or no instruction.
3. When considering consequences of an increase in inflation rate due to demand-side shock, people expect lower unemployment rate than those make forecasts with emotion or no instruction.
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|
Field
Experimental Design (Public)
|
Before
The experiment proceeds as follows: First, we ask what macroeconomic variables (such as inflation, unemployment rate, GDP growth rate, and interest rate) do consumers care about when making consumption-saving decisions and we measure people's beliefs about the interested variables. We then generate exogenous variation in macroeconomic forecasts from professional forecasters. While some respondents receive a high value of forecast, others receive a low value of forecast, which differ due to sampling variation and procedural differences. Thereafter, we measure people's expectations regarding their interested macroeconomic variables. Finally, we measure people's expectations regarding other macroeconomic variables
|
After
The experiment 1 proceeds as follows: First, we ask what macroeconomic variables (such as inflation, unemployment rate, GDP growth rate, and interest rate) do consumers care about when making consumption-saving decisions and we measure people's beliefs about the interested variables. We then generate exogenous variation in macroeconomic forecasts from professional forecasters. While some respondents receive a high value of forecast, others receive a low value of forecast, which differ due to sampling variation and procedural differences. Thereafter, we measure people's expectations regarding their interested macroeconomic variables. Finally, we measure people's expectations regarding other macroeconomic variables.
The experiment 2 proceeds as follows: first, we randomly assign respondents into two groups, with one we provide a hypothetical scenario that inflation increases by 2 percentage points due to a demand-side shock and another group with the same size of increase but due to a supply-side shock. Second, for each group mentioned above, we assign respondents into three groups randomly and provide them different instructions of making predictions about the national unemployment rates. One group is provided no instruction, and one group is asked to make predictions by using emotions, and one group is asked to make predictions by considering consequences of inflation increase.
|
|
Field
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
|
Before
half respondents receive high professional forecast and half respondents receive low professional forecast
|
After
experiment 1: half respondents receive high professional forecast and half respondents receive low professional forecast
experiment 2: half respondents receive a treatment of a supply-side driven inflation increase and half respondents receive a treatment of a demand-side driven inflation increase. In each group, 1/3 of respondents make predictions of national unemployment rate with no instructions, and 1/3 of them are asked to make predictions with emotion, and 1/3 of them are asked to make predictions based on a consideration of consqences of inflation increase.
|
|
Field
Intervention (Hidden)
|
Before
|
After
Intervention 1: we provide two groups of respondents randomly with inflation forecast made by professional forecasters.
Intervention 2: we provide two groups of respondents randomly with two kinds of inflation rise, one due to a supply-side shock, and one due to a demand-side shock; then for each group three subgroups of respondents randomly with instructions of making predictions of unemployment rate, one with no instruction, one with instruction of making predictions using emotion and one with instruction of making predictions considering consequences.
|
|
Field
Did you obtain IRB approval for this study?
|
Before
No
|
After
Yes
|