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Field
Trial Start Date
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Before
July 15, 2022
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After
July 22, 2022
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Field
Trial End Date
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Before
July 15, 2024
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After
July 22, 2024
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Field
Last Published
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Before
July 14, 2022 04:04 PM
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After
July 22, 2022 12:21 AM
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Field
Intervention Start Date
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Before
July 15, 2022
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After
July 22, 2022
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Field
Intervention End Date
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Before
July 15, 2024
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After
July 22, 2024
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Field
Primary Outcomes (Explanation)
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Before
I will use both point-based accuracy measures and rank-based accuracy measures. The accuracy of individual forecasters will be compared to the accuracy of crowds of forecasters.
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After
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Field
Planned Number of Observations
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Before
A minimum of 2,000 forecasts will be collected.
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After
A minimum of 1,500 forecasts will be collected.
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Field
Intervention (Hidden)
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Before
Each study participant provides point predictions of the causal effects of interventions measured in randomized experiments.
Participants will be randomized to one of four conditions in a 2x2 design:
Elicitation format: Participants will enter their predictions using (a) a slider scale, or (b) through numeric text entry.
Incentives: Participants will be randomly assigned to receive financial incentives based on the accuracy of their predictions.
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After
Each study participant provides point predictions of the causal effects of interventions measured in randomized experiments. Participants will be randomly assigned to one of two conditions:
Incentive group: Participants will be randomly assigned to receive financial incentives based on the accuracy of their predictions.
Control group: Participants will not receive any accuracy-based incentives.
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