Rare Event Expectations

Last registered on August 09, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Rare Event Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009891
Initial registration date
August 05, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 09, 2022, 4:39 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

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Primary Investigator

Name
Manuel Menkhoff
Affiliation
ifo Institute
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2022-08-02
End date
2024-10-31
Keywords
Behavior, Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
I study the effect of rare event expectation on first and second moment expectations and employment as well as investment decisions of firms. To generate exogenous variation in rare event expectations, I run an information provision experiment.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Menkhoff, Manuel. 2022. "Rare Event Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. August 09. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9891-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2022-08-02
Intervention End Date
2022-08-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
first and second moment of unconditional firm-level expectations, investment, employees
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
GDP expectations
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Treatment groups receive information about rare event probabilities. The rest is in the paper (later).
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Computer
Randomization Unit
individual/firm
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
300 firms
Sample size: planned number of observations
300 firms
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
100 firms control, 100 firms pandemic, 100 firms financial crisis
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan