Tail Risk Neglect

Last registered on August 18, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Tail Risk Neglect
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009917
Initial registration date
August 11, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 18, 2022, 2:34 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Johannes Beutel
Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Valentin Stockerl
PI Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2022-08-14
End date
2023-11-10
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
Subjective Beliefs, Tail Risk Neglect
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study the perception of tail risks in a large sample of representative households. We elicit their assessments regarding the probability of several tail risks, the impact conditional on occurrence (similar to loss given default), and the implications for individuals' behavior. Information treatments allow us to assess the impact of news on individuals' tail risk perception. Key questions that we seek to answer are the extent and sources of tail risk neglect.
External Link(s)
Bundesbank Survey of Consumer Expectations Website

Registration Citation

Citation
Beutel, Johannes and Valentin Stockerl. 2022. "Tail Risk Neglect." AEA RCT Registry. August 18. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9917-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Respondents' perceptions are elicited pre- and post treatment. The randomly assigned treatments consist of pieces of information related to specific tail risks that are similar to news article abstracts. For each type of tail risk, there are two treatment groups, one group receives "good" news, the other group receives "bad" news. This setup allows us to estimate the effect of these treatments on individuals perceptions and to compare these effects to predictions from theory.
Intervention Start Date
2022-08-15
Intervention End Date
2023-11-10

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Probability of several types of tail risks, impact of several types of tail risks, planned expenditure, planned asset allocation, attitudes on the timing of certain asset purchases
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
THE FULL QUESTIONNAIRE WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE WEBSITE OF THE BUNDESBANK SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (SEE LINK) SHORTLY AFTER THE FIELD PERIOD OF THE AUGUST 2022 WAVE.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Respondents' perceptions are elicited pre- and post treatment. The randomly assigned treatments consist of pieces of information related to specific tail risks that are similar to news article abstracts. For each type of tail risk, there are two treatment groups, one group receives "good" news, the other group receives "bad" news. This setup allows us to estimate the effect of these treatments on individuals perceptions and to compare these effects to predictions from theory.
The types of tail risks studied include financial crises, pandemics, the risk of war, and the risk of an energy crisis.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
9000 households
Sample size: planned number of observations
9000 households
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1000
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials