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Trial Title Promoting Future Orientation Among Cash Transfer Recipients Direct and Interaction Effects of Cash Transfers and Psychological Interventions Promoting Future Orientation on Economic Outcomes
Trial End Date December 31, 2018 December 31, 2019
Last Published November 04, 2018 02:14 PM December 31, 2018 02:47 AM
Primary Outcomes (End Points) The various outcomes will be specified in different pre-analysis plans that will be lodged before the outcomes are analyzed. Two initial analysis plans are enclosed in the initial registration (November 2016) for outcomes collected in the vicinity of the intervetion. Assets, investment into economic activity, human capital investment, labour supply, revenue, consumption. We also examine the mechanisms through which the psychological intervention may work: self-efficacy, growth mindset, aspirations, expectations for the future, preferences and cognitive bandwidth. Two initial analysis plans are enclosed in the initial registration (November 2016) for outcomes collected in the vicinity of the intervention, examining self-efficacy, growth mindset, aspirations and expectations, as well as cognitive outcomes.
Experimental Design (Public) The project follows a 2x2 factorial design, and villages randomly allocated into one of four treatment arms: (1) Psychologically active intervention (2) Placebo intervention (3) Cash transfer intervention plus psychologically active intervention (4) Cash transfer intervention plus placebo intervention Within arm (3), the timing of the psychologically active intervention is randomized at the level of individuals for the purposes of a sub-trial. The project follows a 2x2 factorial design, and villages randomly allocated into one of four treatment arms: (1) Psychologically active intervention (2) Placebo intervention (3) Cash transfer intervention plus psychologically active intervention (4) Cash transfer intervention plus placebo intervention Within arm (3), the timing of the psychologically active intervention is randomized at the level of individuals.
Randomization Unit Main study: Randomized at the village level. Sub-study: randomized at the level of individuals. Randomized at the village level. Within arm (3), the timing of the psychologically active intervention is randomized at the level of individuals.
Planned Number of Clusters Estimated: 370 -430 villages. Number is not final; recruitment is ongoing. 415 villages
Planned Number of Observations Estimated average: 18 participants per village. Number is not final; recruitment is ongoing. Roughly 8,000 (tracking of participants is ongoing).
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms Target distribution is 1/4 of villages in each arm; but randomization is phased and ongoing, and the overall number of villages may not be divisible by 4. 1/4 of villages in each arm.
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Affiliation University of Oxford
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