The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending

Last registered on August 25, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009975
Initial registration date
August 24, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 25, 2022, 2:24 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Belgium
Region
Country
Germany
Region
Country
Spain
Region
Country
France
Region
Country
Netherlands
Region
Country
United States of America
Region
CA

Primary Investigator

Name
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Affiliation
UC Berkeley
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Dimitris Georgarakos
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Olivier Coibion
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Geoff Kenny
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Michael Weber
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2020-04-01
End date
2020-12-31
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
E3, E4, E5
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some households. The effects on their spending decisions relative to an untreated control group are measured in follow-up surveys.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Coibion, Olivier et al. 2022. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending." AEA RCT Registry. August 25. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9975-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth in the euro area.
Intervention Start Date
2020-04-01
Intervention End Date
2020-04-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
consumer spending
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
consumption response to uncertainty

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
composition of consumer spending (budget shares), investment allocations
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
elicit pre-treatment beliefs
assign groups into treatment and controls
treated groups are provided with publicly about information about growth rate of GDP in the euro area
elicit post-treatment beliefs
track respondents over time to see how/if they change their consumer behavior
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
survey respondent
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
10000 respondents
Sample size: planned number of observations
10000 respondents
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
2000 per treatment arm
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials