The political effects of conspiracy theories in West Africa: Experimental evidence from Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal

Misinformation has become pervasive in American politics, and the rise of groups like QAnon reveal that conspiratorial thinking is neither a rare nor a benign phenomenon. In the post-truth era, misperceptions are prevalent among the mass public, but surprisingly, elites also exploit and promote misinformation. Given current interest by scholars and the public in the effects of “fake news” on political attitudes and beliefs, as well as on political participation, our proposed work aims to examine the consequences of exposure to and beliefs in conspiracy theories, which are a specific form of misinformation on political behavior. Do conspiracy theories make people more or less politically active? Moreover, do they affect perceptions of one's identity and their perceptions of democracy?

Although a growing body of studies has explored the antecedents of people’s adoption of conspiracy beliefs, the consequences of conspiracy theories – particularly regarding political participation concerning normative vs. non-normative political participation– have been less explored. Research has looked at conspiracy beliefs, exposure to specific conspiracy theories, conspiracy thinking, and the communication of conspiracy theories as predictor variables. To date, the findings are mixed due to conceptual differences and the selection of predictors with different functions and aspects.

In this paper we study the political effects of conspiracy theories but here we extend them to a non-western context. Most research on the political effects of conspiracy theories has been conducted in western countries leaving aside their effects in non-western countries. Yet, just like in western countries, conspiracy theories are a deep part of political life in many countries in the world. This is especially true in semi-democratic countries like those in Africa. In this analysis we extend research to West Africa examining Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal. Our focus is on the effects of conspiracy theories in two areas (i) identity and perceptions focusing on respondent views of their own identity and democracy and (ii) political behavior. We will ask a series of questions to measure these various outcomes including one that is behavioral asking if they want to donate their participation fee to a government-run orphanage.

In addition we will conduct replications in the U.S. with a nationally representative survey conducted by Yougov and another non-representative sample with Mturk. We will use these results to provide a comparison with a western country.