The Legacy of Political Violence: An Experimental Analysis in Nigeria

Last registered on January 03, 2023


Trial Information

General Information

The Legacy of Political Violence: An Experimental Analysis in Nigeria
Initial registration date
December 19, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 03, 2023, 4:43 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.



Primary Investigator

Bucknell University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

On going
Start date
End date
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Across Africa and other parts of the world past events of political violence continue to harass people. From West Africa to East Africa to South Africa, the threat or legacy of political violence presents an ominous and disconcerting issue for many people. The legacy and thus threat of political violence is a constant presence in people's lives. In this analysis, we will test the effect of elections on outcomes related to wellbeing, identity (ethnic vs. national), and the degree to which people think political violence is a problem. There are two parts to this project: (i) a survey experiment in which people will be treated with a question about if the upcoming Nigerian presidential election on Feb 25, 2023, and (ii) the timing of that election. All of the outcomes are the same across the two projects and include their views on political violence, their wellbeing, and their ethnic versus national identity. We expect that those respondents randomly assigned a treatment about elections and the possibility that they pose problems

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Doces, John. 2023. "The Legacy of Political Violence: An Experimental Analysis in Nigeria." AEA RCT Registry. January 03.
Experimental Details


On February 25, 2023 there will be a presidential election in Nigeria. In the past there have been many problems associated with elections in Nigeria. There is thus a legacy of problems with elections in Nigeria. Do you worry that this election might cause problems in Nigeria ?

□ Yes I worry about the election □ No I do not worry about the election
Intervention Start Date
Intervention End Date

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
wellbeing, identity, views of political violence
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Experiment will randomly assign treatment to respondents.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization will be done using computer in office prior to data collection. Will determine order of surveys (treatment group vs control group) by the enumerator.
Randomization Unit
Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
We will conduct the survey over two days in two different areas of Lagos.
Sample size: planned number of observations
We will collect 320 total observations.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
There will be 160 observations for the treatment condition and 160 for the control condition.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Based on prior surveys for wellbeing, we have calculated that approximately 80 observations for a power of 0.80. We have opted for more than that by treatment-control as we have the funds to do so.
Supporting Documents and Materials


Document Name
Document Type
Document Description
These are the hypotheses to be tested.

MD5: 387bcaed4176767565a28a378150467d

SHA1: 461c5c2e001fdae9f8b0ae3ada3952d645ad7ad2

Uploaded At: December 19, 2022


Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Bucknell University Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number


Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Is the intervention completed?
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials