Imagining the Future: Experimental Evidence

Last registered on May 03, 2023
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Imagining the Future: Experimental Evidence
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0011344
Initial registration date
May 02, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 03, 2023, 4:38 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Katherine Coffman
Affiliation
Harvard Business School
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Pedro Bordalo
PI Affiliation
Oxford
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Nicola Gennaioli
PI Affiliation
Bocconi
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Giovanni Burro
PI Affiliation
Bocconi
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Andrei Shleifer
PI Affiliation
Harvard
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-05-15
End date
2023-05-17
Keywords
Behavior, Other
Additional Keywords
Memory, beliefs
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project aims to understand how people form beliefs about future events, particularly unfamiliar or novel events. We propose that memories of past experiences, both relevant and potentially irrelevant, shape these beliefs. Suppose an individual is estimating the likelihood of a significant cyberattack in the future. We argue that the individual will rely, in part, on past experiences that have some similarity to the event they are trying to imagine (a significant cyberattack). Our theory proposes that individuals who have personal experience with very similar things – for instance, identity theft – will have an easier time imagining a future cyberattack, boosting their estimates of the likelihood of it occurring. We will run a controlled experiment that investigates these memory mechanisms, exploring how exogenously varying which past (similar but objectively irrelevant) experiences “come to mind” impacts beliefs about the likelihood of future events.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Bordalo, Pedro et al. 2023. "Imagining the Future: Experimental Evidence." AEA RCT Registry. May 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11344-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Participants will be randomly-assigned to one of four treatments:
• ID Theft prime
• Personal financial struggle prime
• Loss of a loved one prime
• Control treatment

For individuals in the ID theft prime, participants will be asked whether they have personal experience with identity theft. If they do, they will answer a few short questions about the experience, prompting them to remember it. Then, they will write a few short sentences about what they recalled when thinking about the experience.

For individuals in the financial struggles prime, participants will be asked whether they have personal experience with financial difficulties. If they do, they will answer a few short questions about the experience, prompting them to remember it. Then, they will write a few short sentences about what they recalled when thinking about the experience.

For individuals in the loss of loved one prime, participants will be asked whether they have lost a loved one. If they do, they will answer a few short questions about the experience, prompting them to remember it. Then, they will write a few short sentences about what they recalled when thinking about the experience.

Individuals in the Control treatment do not see an experience prompt of this form.

After this part of the survey, we provide participants with some basic information about cyberattacks. Then, we ask them to estimate the likelihood of a significant cyberattack impacting them or people like them in the next five years in the United States. We then ask participants to describe what they thought about when imagining the possibility of a cyberattack and how vividly they imagined it.

Then, we ask all participants about whether they’ve had each of a series of negative life experiences (just yes/no), including the three possible primed experiences, and how similar they feel these experiences are to a cyberattack. Finally, participants answer demographic questions.
Intervention Start Date
2023-05-15
Intervention End Date
2023-05-17

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our key outcome variable is the estimated likelihood of a significant cyberattack. We have two of these likelihood questions:

(i) What do you believe is the likelihood that you will be significantly impacted by a cyberattack over the next 5 years? Please indicate on a scale of 0 - 100, where 0 indicates that there is no chance at all that you will be significantly impacted by a cyberattack and 100 indicates that you will definitely be significantly impacted.

(ii) Now, think of 1,000 people just like you in the United States. Out of those 1,000 people, how many do you believe will be significantly impacted by a cyberattack over the next 5 years?

We will analyze both outcome measures independently. In addition, we will construct an index outcome for each participant by constructing a z-score for each of the two individual outcome questions and averaging them.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
We are also interested in the self-reported vividness with which they imagined a cyberattack (reported on a 1 - 7 scale).
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will recruit participants on Prolific. They will be asked to complete a 15 minute survey.

Participants will be randomly-assigned to one of four treatments:
• ID Theft prime
• Personal financial struggle prime
• Loss of a loved one prime
• Control treatment

For individuals in the ID theft prime, participants will be asked whether they have personal experience with identity theft. If they do, they will answer a few short questions about the experience, prompting them to remember it. Then, they will write a few short sentences about what they recalled when thinking about the experience.

For individuals in the financial struggles prime, participants will be asked whether they have personal experience with financial difficulties. If they do, they will answer a few short questions about the experience, prompting them to remember it. Then, they will write a few short sentences about what they recalled when thinking about the experience.

For individuals in the loss of loved one prime, participants will be asked whether they have lost a loved one. If they do, they will answer a few short questions about the experience, prompting them to remember it. Then, they will write a few short sentences about what they recalled when thinking about the experience.

Individuals in the Control treatment do not see an experience prompt of this form.

After this part of the survey, we provide participants with some basic information about cyberattacks. Then, we ask them to estimate the likelihood of a significant cyberattack impacting them or people like them in the next five years in the United States. We then ask participants to describe what they thought about when imagining the possibility of a cyberattack and how vividly they imagined it.

Then, we ask all participants about whether they’ve had each of a series of negative life experiences (just yes/no), including the three possible primed experiences, and how similar they feel these experiences are to a cyberattack. Finally, participants answer demographic questions.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization by Qualtrics program
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
3000 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
3000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
3000 individuals spread evenly across the 4 treatments, approximately 750 per treatment
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Harvard Human Research Protection Program
IRB Approval Date
2023-04-06
IRB Approval Number
IRB23-0443
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials