Ukraine Victory List Experiment

Last registered on July 10, 2023


Trial Information

General Information

Ukraine Victory List Experiment
Initial registration date
July 04, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 10, 2023, 9:24 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.


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Primary Investigator

George Washington University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences Ukraine

Additional Trial Information

On going
Start date
End date
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
This study embeds an experimental design in the third wave of a panel survey to study the difference between private and public belief in the likelihood Ukraine will win its war with Russia.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Alexseev, Mikhail, Serhii Dembitskyi and Henry Hale. 2023. "Ukraine Victory List Experiment." AEA RCT Registry. July 10.
Experimental Details


This study includes a survey-embedded list experiment paired with two direct questions.
Intervention Start Date
Intervention End Date

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The outcome variable is a count, the number of items people say they believe will happen for Ukraine in the future.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The difference between the average control group count and the treatment/placebo group count will yield an estimate of the prevalence of privately held faith in victory (private optimism). This can be compared to the estimate generated by the direct question on faith in victory (public optimism) to generate an estimate of the extent of preference falsification.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study combines two samples. The first is a set of individuals who were first interviewed in wave 1 of the panel survey (the panel respondents). The second is a randomized national sample of new respondents. All are interviewed by phone. For the panel respondents, the survey agency KIIS attempts to contact as many as possible to take this survey, which is the third wave in the panel. For the new respondents, KIIS uses a computer to generate random cell phone numbers, whereupon the KIIS interviewer calls the selected phone numbers and, if the person answering is an adult, invites them to be interviewed. If the number does not exist or the individual who answered is unavailable to be interviewed, the interviewer moves on to the next one.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
With the restriction that all placebo-arm respondents will come from among new respondents, respondents will be assigned randomly to one of the three treatment arms. Randomization of treatment assignments will be accomplished by KIIS using their standard randomization software.
Randomization Unit
Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Sample size: planned number of observations
Total of 1,325 respondents (475 panel, 850 new), all adult residents of Ukraine.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 441 respondents per treatment arm.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Research Support Services, UCSD
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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