Ukraine Victory List Experiment

Last registered on July 10, 2023

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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Ukraine Victory List Experiment

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0011724

Initial registration date

July 04, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

July 10, 2023, 9:24 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name

Henry Hale

Affiliation

George Washington University

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Mikhail Alexseev

PI Affiliation

UCSD

Contact Investigator

PI Name

Serhii Dembitskyi

PI Affiliation

Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences Ukraine

Additional Trial Information

Status

On going

Start date

2023-06-13

End date

2024-12-31

Keywords

Behavior, Crime, Violence, & Conflict

Additional Keywords

Ukraine, war

JEL code(s)

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

This study embeds an experimental design in the third wave of a panel survey to study the difference between private and public belief in the likelihood Ukraine will win its war with Russia.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Alexseev, Mikhail, Serhii Dembitskyi and Henry Hale. 2023. "Ukraine Victory List Experiment." AEA RCT Registry. July 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11724-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

This study includes a survey-embedded list experiment paired with two direct questions.

Intervention Start Date

2023-06-13

Intervention End Date

2023-07-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

The outcome variable is a count, the number of items people say they believe will happen for Ukraine in the future.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

The difference between the average control group count and the treatment/placebo group count will yield an estimate of the prevalence of privately held faith in victory (private optimism). This can be compared to the estimate generated by the direct question on faith in victory (public optimism) to generate an estimate of the extent of preference falsification.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

The study combines two samples. The first is a set of individuals who were first interviewed in wave 1 of the panel survey (the panel respondents). The second is a randomized national sample of new respondents. All are interviewed by phone. For the panel respondents, the survey agency KIIS attempts to contact as many as possible to take this survey, which is the third wave in the panel. For the new respondents, KIIS uses a computer to generate random cell phone numbers, whereupon the KIIS interviewer calls the selected phone numbers and, if the person answering is an adult, invites them to be interviewed. If the number does not exist or the individual who answered is unavailable to be interviewed, the interviewer moves on to the next one.

Experimental Design Details

Not available

Randomization Method

With the restriction that all placebo-arm respondents will come from among new respondents, respondents will be assigned randomly to one of the three treatment arms. Randomization of treatment assignments will be accomplished by KIIS using their standard randomization software.

Randomization Unit

Individual

Was the treatment clustered?