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Automating Public Distribution Programs - Experimental Evidence from Ghana's PREMIX

Last registered on July 19, 2023

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Digital Innovation in Ghana - Interventions Targeted at Addressing Leakage (DIGITAL)
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0011786
Initial registration date
July 14, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 19, 2023, 2:33 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of California, Berkeley

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Ghana
PI Affiliation
Georgia State University
PI Affiliation
World Bank

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2023-06-01
End date
2024-07-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study Ghana’s Premix Fuel Program – a large “conditional” transfer program subsidizing premix fuel for fishermen in Ghana. Subsidized fuel is hoarded, creating artificial shortages and prices that defy the program’s spirit. We partner with the National Premix Fuel Secretariat, which manages the Program. The Secretariat is preparing to rollout a nationwide program that will digitize access to subsidized fuel to reduce leakages. Some experimentation already took place, so the technical feasibility of the process is not in question. Following our interactions, the Secretariat is willing to stagger rollout of the digitization program. We proceed as follows. First, multi-cohort randomization across landing the 315 beaches (234 communities) will determine the timing of the staggered rollout. Second, survey of fishermen and villagers to track: fuel usage, leakage, poverty, and economic/environmental/social outcomes the digitization may improve, including community-wide spillovers and general equilibrium effects. We implement innovative measures for fuel diversion and quality: (i) administrative data on amount of fuel delivered to the community versus survey data and (ii) audit studies to estimate black-market prices and quantities. We deploy Quality Assurance Teams to measure the quality of premix fuel in circulation across communities. We also use high-frequency measures of air pollution by (i) installing outdoor monitors and (ii) use available satellite and remote sensing data.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Annan, Francis et al. 2023. "Digital Innovation in Ghana - Interventions Targeted at Addressing Leakage (DIGITAL)." AEA RCT Registry. July 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11786-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The Secretariat (or government partner) has provided listing of all the landing beaches (N=234 communities, where the beneficiaries are located and the digitization program will be deployed). We will randomly assign these communities via a multi-cohort community-level field experiment to examine the general equilibrium effects of the digitization program. "Digitization" (or automation) consists of modernized stations, to be constructed and introduced nationally, where fishermen can access subsidized PREMIX fuel. This station includes an (i) automated dispenser system (ADS), which only operates with personalized-biometric cards that will be issued to all canoes / owners, (ii) an office for station manager and landing beach committee (LBC), (iii) toilet facility; along with (iv) a live CCTV camera. Its central goal is to prevent leakages or diversions in the PREMIX program. "Cohort" denotes the set of communities (or landing beaches) that the Secretariat has operationally chosen to automate at different milestones -- averaging around 50 communities per cohort.
Intervention Start Date
2023-09-01
Intervention End Date
2024-02-29

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1) Premix fuel delivery and usage, including detailed information about business outcomes (e.g., lines of business: fishing vs non-fishing; employment; revenues; assets; profits; boat or canoe failures; fishing rates, etc.), beneficiaries’ perceptions about and preferences for the digitization program, likelihood of having access to premix fuel in the community, prices beneficiaries pay for fuel (both premix and non-premix fuel), prices of fish, etc.

2) Leakages across local communities by (i) comparing (the Secretariat's) administrative data and (the PIs) survey data and (ii) audit study whereby trained auditors attempt to engage in black market transactions.

3) Poverty: The communities are low-income and poor environments. We field questions to directly examine poverty. We will adapt a recently developed measure of poverty, called the “Simple Poverty Scorecard”, that is rigorous, inexpensive, simple, and transparent (for details, see Schreiner 2015). We will complement this with data on:
*(i) Household expenses (food, bills, education, health, durables / appliances / accessories, personal care, durables) and
*(ii) Subjective and objective inclusion/exclusion indexes reflecting whether: every fisherman has the opportunity to official PREMIX, LBC leaders avoid playing favorites, fishermen in community treated fairly and/or full in access to official PREMIX, fishermen excited that LBC leaders will welcome and support them, fishermen feel like beneficiaries of program, fishermen perspectives are counted/included in PREMIX decision making by LBC leaders; fishermen have not had access to PREMIX for for long time and/or denied access to the official PREMIX.

4) Quality of premix fuel in circulation across communities by deploying NPA’s Quality Assurance Team to randomly conduct quality checks and certification tests at across select communities.

5) Air pollution and carbon emission across communities by deploying NPA’s Quality Assurance Team to install and monitor outdoor pollution trackers across select communities. We will complement this with available satellite and remote sensing data.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
In total:
1) Treatment: 60% of communities as Treatment communities (Digitize: apply the automation technology "EARLIER" to enforce monitoring of fuel subsidies and avoid diversions of premix fuel; N=~140).
2) Control: 40% of communities as Control communities (Status Quo = no digitization until "LATER" after 3-4 months per cohort; N=~94). For each cohort of communities, after 3-4 months, all the control communities will be also digitized. This delayed digitization of control communities agrees with the Secretariat’s resource and capacity constraints and have hence agreed to enroll their automation program according this design.

We will be able to detect digitization effects by measuring differences between the Control and Treatment arms. We will also be able to detect community-wide spillovers and equilibrium effects by (i) comparing beneficiaries to non-beneficiaries in Treatment communities; (ii) measuring differences between communities with more vs less beneficiaries in Treatment communities, including (iii) measuring changes in prices across nearby commercial fuel outlets.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Computer software and simple lotteries, while ensuring balance on observable characteristics (Bruhn and McKenzie [2009])
Randomization Unit
Randomization is at the community-level, stratified based on districts, and all misfits (if any) resolved and randomly assigned.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Number of communities: 234
Number of districts (larger administrative units containing multiple localities): 26
Sample size: planned number of observations
Number of communities: 234 *Number of (direct) beneficiaries: 234 communities x about 65 canoes per community = around 15,210 canoes *Number of (direct) beneficiaries: 234 communities x about 65 canoes per community x 15 employees per canoe = around 228,150 employees *Number of non-beneficiaries (indirect): over 3 million people across all fishing communities
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
140 communities (Treatment);
94 communities (Control program)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Ghana
IRB Approval Date
2023-04-19
IRB Approval Number
ECH 164/ 22-23