Cash Transfers and Strategic Migration

Each subject in our survey experiment is exposed to two treatments. First, subjects are randomly assigned to one of the following five (A) informational treatments. After exposure to treatment, subjects enter their response in an open-ended form. Subjects are then exposed to one of five additional (B) informational treatments pertaining to Alaska.

A Control) Thinking about the next three years, how likely would you say you are to move to [the state a subject previously indicated a preference for living in] where 0 is definitely not moving in the next three years and 100 is definitely moving in the next three years.

A1) Imagine [the state a subject previously indicated a preference for living in] implements a program that would pay every resident (regardless of age or employment status) $2,000 per year. Because every person in your household is eligible to receive the payments, that would be a total of [the subjects family size multiplied by $2000].

Thinking about the next three years, how likely would you say you are to move to [the state a subject previously indicated a preference for living in] where 0 is definitely not moving in the next three years and 100 is definitely moving in the next three years.

A2) Imagine [the state a subject previously indicated a preference for living in] implements a tax cut based on household size ($2,000 per person regardless of age or employment status). For your household the tax cut would total [the subjects family size multiplied by $2000] per year.

Thinking about the next three years, how likely would you say you are to move to [the state a subject previously indicated a preference for living in], where 0 is definitely not moving in the next three years and 100 is definitely moving in the next three years.

A3) Imagine [the state a subject previously indicated a preference for living in] experienced a reduction in its current cost of living (saving households $2,000 per person). For your household, the reduced cost of living would total [the subjects family size multiplied by $2000] per year.

Thinking about the next three years, how likely would you say you are to move to [the state a subject previously indicated a preference for living in], where 0 is definitely not moving in the next three years and 100 is definitely moving in the next three years.

A4) Imagine [the state a subject previously indicated a preference for living in] experienced a [the subjects family size multiplied by $2000] per year increase in wages for jobs that might interest you.

Thinking about the next three years, how likely would you say you are to move to ${q://QID13/ChoiceGroup/SelectedChoices}, where 0 is definitely not moving in the next three years and 100 is definitely moving in the next three years.

Second Set of Treatments.
After exposure to one of the five treatments listed below, subjects are asked to state their probability of moving to Alaska over the next 3 years. Responses are required to be numerical ranging between 0 and 100 (corresponding to probabilities).

B Control) Alaska was the 49th state admitted to the United States. The state flag displays eight gold stars, forming the Big Dipper and Polaris, on a dark blue field. The state flower is the forget-me-not.

B1) Alaska was the 49th state admitted to the United States. The state flag displays eight gold stars, forming the Big Dipper and Polaris, on a dark blue field. The state flower is the forget-me-not.

Every Alaskan resident, regardless of age, is eligible to receive a Permanent Fund Dividend Check (PFD). Its value varies from year to year, but is typically between $1,000 and $3,000. So, a household of your size would receive between [subject family size multiplied by $1,000] and [subject family size multiplied by $3,000] each year.

B2) Alaska was the 49th state admitted to the United States. The state flag displays eight gold stars, forming the Big Dipper and Polaris, on a dark blue field. The state flower is the forget-me-not.

Alaska is the only state without a broad-based tax. While Alaskans pay local taxes, they do not pay any state income, sales, or property tax.

B3) Alaska was the 49th state admitted to the United States. The state flag displays eight gold stars, forming the Big Dipper and Polaris, on a dark blue field. The state flower is the forget-me-not.

Alaska's largest city is Anchorage and is home to roughly 300,000 people. For reference, it’s larger than Boise Idaho, Reno Nevada, and Greensboro North Carolina. The city is home to dozens of breweries, award-winning restaurants, and major retailers like Target, Costco, and Home Depot.

B4) Alaska was the 49th state admitted to the United States. The state flag displays eight gold stars, forming the Big Dipper and Polaris, on a dark blue field. The state flower is the forget-me-not.

Recently, the State of Alaska has experienced large budget deficits, leading to significant cuts to education, public health, and infrastructure spending. It’s a habitual problem in the state resulting from its dependence on oil which creates repeating “boom and bust” cycles in the economy.

2023-09-15

2023-10-31

Key outcomes of interest for treatment 1 include:
1A) Subject stated willingness (measured between 0 and 100) to move to a state they have previously expressed interest in moving to.
2A) Subject stated expected life satisfaction (measured on an 11 point Likert scale) from living in the referenced state.

1B) Subject stated willingness to move to Alaska (measured between 0 and 100).
2B) Subject stated life satisfaction from moving to, and living in, Alaska (measured on an 11 point Likert scale).
3B) (Log) time subjects spend voluntarily collecting additional information about Alaska.
4B) Number of total clicks subjects make when collecting additional information about Alaska.
5B) Whether subjects click on specific links to information about Alaskan i) schools, ii) labor market, iii) housing, iv) general information.

Our aim to gauge peoples preference for - and willingness to move for - various amenities specifically including tax cuts and cash transfers. Our main variables are directly measured.

Subjects are randomly assigned to two treatments describing a particular amenity of A) a generic state and B) Alaska. Subjects are then asked to state their i) expected life satisfaction from living in the generic state and Alaska, and ii) their probability of moving to the generic state and Alaska in the next three years.

Treatment effects will be estimated using unconditional and conditional linear regressions. Covariates of interest will be those on dummy variables indicating exposure to treatment (of which there will be four in experiment A and five in experiment B). Outcome variables will be treated as continuous variables in baseline regressions, but an Ordered Probit estimator will be used as robustness for outcome variables measured on a Likert scale. In conditional regressions, covariates include subject age, gender, political ideology, income, employment status, education, and subject stated mobility (ranging from rooted, stuck, to mobile).

Heterogeneous effects will be estimated by interacting treatment indicators with 1) a measure of loss aversion, 2) the presence of children, 3) age, 4) income, 5) employment status, 6) political ideology (measured as a binary variable derived from a left/liberal and right/conservative Likert scale), voting behavior in the 2020 Presidential election, and stated preference regarding size of federal government), and 7) the subject stated mobility (ranging from rooted, stuck, to mobile). We will also explore heterogeneities in treatment effects based on current state of reference, with specific attention paid to tax structure in the state of residence. In particular, we will explore whether people living in high (low) tax states have unique preferences for or against fiscal programs in potential destination states. We will explore heterogeneity based on whether subject currently live in urban areas (measured at the zip code level) with specific attention paid to the effect of learning about urbanization in Anchorage (treatment B3). In the second (Alaska-specific treatment), we will additionally explore heterogeneities based on 1) whether a subject has lived in Alaska or western states, 2) whether a subject does or has lived in an oil-rich state (defined according to James and Rivera 2022, JEEM) and 2) whether the information provided in the Alaska-specific treatments was new to a subject.

Randomization using Qualtrics.

Individual.

No

1

4000 Prolific users

1