Migration during wartime

Last registered on September 20, 2023
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Migration during wartime
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012129
Initial registration date
September 15, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 20, 2023, 10:48 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Olga Onuch
Affiliation
University of Manchester
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
David Doyle
PI Affiliation
University of Oxford
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2023-09-01
End date
2023-12-31
Keywords
Behavior, Crime, Violence, & Conflict
Additional Keywords
Ukraine, migration, war
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study embeds a list experiment design in a survey of Ukraine’s population to study the proportion of people who would be willing to move abroad.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Doyle, David and Olga Onuch. 2023. "Migration during wartime ." AEA RCT Registry. September 20. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12129-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
This study includes a survey-embedded list experiment.
Intervention Start Date
2023-09-08
Intervention End Date
2023-09-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The outcome variable is a count, the number of statements with which a given respondent says they agree.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The difference between the average control group count and a treatment/placebo group count will yield an estimate of the prevalence of privately held agreement with the fourth statement in each treatment arm of the survey. This can be compared to the estimate generated by the direct questions on the same topics to generate an estimate of the extent of preference falsification.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This study utilizes phone interviews with a randomly selected group of people from Ukraine's population. The survey agency KIIS generates random cell phone numbers using a computer. KIIS then contacts the chosen phone numbers, and if an adult answers, invites them to participate in the interview. If the number is invalid or the person who answers is unable to participate, the interviewer moves on to the next number.

Participants will be randomly allocated into three groups. One of those groups constitutes the control group; the other is the treated group with the controversial fourth statement; and the third group will receive the fourth placebo statement.
Experimental Design Details
This study utilizes phone interviews with a randomly selected group of people from Ukraine's population. The survey agency KIIS generates random cell phone numbers using a computer. KIIS then contacts the chosen phone numbers, and if an adult answers, invites them to participate in the interview. If the number is invalid or the person who answers is unable to participate, the interviewer moves on to the next number.

Participants will be randomly allocated into three groups. One of those groups constitutes the control group; the other is the treated group with the controversial fourth statement; and the third group will receive the fourth placebo statement.

The statements are presented below:

[General question]
How many of the following would you do in this coming six months if you could? Don't tell me exactly what you would do, but the total number of activities you would be involved in.

Group 1 [control]
Buy a new home appliance
Take a leisurely walk in your town
Buy a new home

Group 2 [controversial item]
Buy a new home appliance
Take a leisurely walk in your town
Buy a new home
Leave Ukraine and move abroad

Group 3 [placebo item]
Buy a new home appliance
Take a leisurely walk in your town
Buy a new home
Visit relatives elsewhere in Ukraine
Randomization Method
Respondents are assigned randomly to one of the four arms. Randomization of treatment assignments is accomplished by KIIS using their standard randomization software.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
2,000 respondents, all adult residents of Ukraine.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 660 respondents per treatment arm.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Manchester Research Ethics Committee 4
IRB Approval Date
2023-09-04
IRB Approval Number
2023-7489-30952
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials