Primary Outcomes (explanation)
For each hypothesis, the following section lists the specific indicators to be analyzed. For some hypotheses, this section identifies a primary set of indicators that most directly relate to and are most likely to be impacted by the project, and also lists a more speculative secondary set that tie less directly to program objectives to be tested separately. Note that the analysis will be conducted only if there is sufficient variation in the data.
H1: Legal aid increases use of the judiciary
• How many times did you meet with a lawyer?
• Case filed in court?
• Outcome reached? (1=yes, whatever it is, 0=no -9999) (all from legal aid database)
Secondary 1: legal aid improves perception of the judiciary:
• F1043: “I am confident that the legal system will uphold my contracts and property rights in a land conflict.”
• On a scale of 1 to 5, in resolving land conflicts, do you believe your country’s court system to: f1037 Be fair and impartial f1040 Be affordable f1038 Be honest and incorrupt f1041 Be consistent f1039 Be quick (deal with cases in timely manner) f1042 Have its decisions enforced
• F1058 “In the last three years, access to the courts has increased”
• F1069-F1076: Perceptions of costs associated with the judiciary should decrease.
Secondary 2: Treated individuals should use more formal means of conflict resolution, while decreasing the use of informal (especially violent) mechanisms
• The responses for “Codes for Protecting Land” to questions f757-f762 (Have you done anything to protect your land from land grabbing and/or theft?”) should change: From 00. Nothing 01. Plant trees on boundary 02. Put up barbed wire/mesh wire 03. Put up electric fence 04. Get guard dog(s) 05. Fence 06. Hire security guard 07. Activate a security light during the night 09. Use witchcraft to protect land 10. Other (Specify): ; To 08. Use title deed
• The responses for “In the past 10 years: Did you encounter any of the following conflicts? What did you do to resolve the conflict?”. Answers to questions f986, f997, f1008, f1019, and f1030 should change as follows: From 00. Do Nothing 01. Private negotiation 02. Block leader/Elders 03. Chief/Sub-Chief 04. Mob justice 05. Hire vigilante 08. Go to witch-doctor 10. Harvest your crops earlier/faster 11. Go to influential friends 12. Other (Specify): To 06. Land tribunal 07. Go to law courts 09. Go to police
• Responses to hypothetical scenarios f1059-f1068 should change as follows: “Imagine that you have the title deed to your shamba, and then your neighbor attempts to grab the land in your shamba. What would you do to try to stop your neighbor from grabbing your land?” From 00. Do Nothing 01. Talk to the land grabbing neighbor 02. Call your friends/family to come and help you 03. Hire a witch-doctor to curse your neighbor 04. Talk to village elders 05. Talk to block leader 06. Talk to sub-chief/chief 08. Hire a justice vigilante 10. Try and incite mob justice/use violence 12. Go to a district official (but not District Commissioner) 13. Go to District Commissioner 16. Go to clan elders 17. Go to Provincial Commissioner 18. Go to a member of Parliament 20. Other (Specify): ; To 07. Go to a land tribunal 09. Go to the police 11. Go to the judiciary/courts 14. Go to land registration office 15. Contact a land surveyor 19. Contact an advocate
Secondary 3: Legal aid reduces perception of need for “side payments”
Secondary 4: Legal aid improves legal knowledge
H2: Legal aid increases security of property rights
• Expectations that “the size of future land holdings due to conflict and/or land distribution will decrease” should decrease for the treatment group (F3125-F3148)
• Do you have the right to sell/rent/take loans/cultivate/leave in a will/gift this plot without/with approval from your family? (F3149-F3185)
• Treated households should make greater use of formal title deeds (F738: “Into how many formal title deeds is this homestead divided?”
• F757-762: “Have you done anything to protect your land from land grabbing and/or theft?” (the answer “use title deed” should appear more in treated households)
• f773 Fencing (in ksh) should decrease
• Safety: f1088 How safe do you feel outside of your homestead during the night? f1090 How safe do you feel inside your homestead during the night? f1089 How safe do you feel outside of your homestead during the day? f1091 How safe do you feel inside your homestead during the day?
H3: Legal aid increases agricultural investment
• Variables f3160 – f3181 in the “Land Improvements” section
• Section Land inputs as well: • F766: animal manure collected • F767: manure purchased • F768: chemical fertilizer • F769: seeds • F770: pesticides • F771: mechanical inputs • F772: other non-labour farm inputs
H4: Legal aid increases access to credit
Increased security of property rights should lead to an increase in the use of property as collateral and hence and increase in access to formal lines credit.
• We would expect to see significant increases in the following formal means of financing: • F3055-3060: employer or landlord • F3069-3074: microfinance institution • F3083-3088: bank or government agency • F3111-3116: SACCO
• Conversely, legal aid should have no significant impact on informal means of lending: • F2999-3004: family member from same HH • F3013-3018: family member from different HH • F3027-3032: friend from same village • F3041-3046: ROSCA / Merry GO Round
H5: Legal aid increases agricultural production
• There should be significant increases in the selling of agricultural commodities (both at market and to brokers) in ksh as specified under the “Household Sales and Consumption” section f785-f957
• More agricultural inputs should increase the marginal product of on-farm labor. Hence, the amount of labor used on the farms of legal aid recipients should increase . This results in a greater number of working days each of the following individuals in the past month have worked have done on the farm: • F774: household head (HHH) • F775: spouse of HHH • F776: HHH’s children • F1195: HHH’s parents • F777: HHH’s in-laws • F1196: HHH’s siblings • F778: HHH’s siblings in law • F779: other family / relatives of HHH • F780: non-family hired labour • F784: friends • F781-782: Other
• Treated households should be significantly more confident that they will not experience a food shortage next year (f385-f386).
• Household identity: less casual work for others, less formal work, more work on own farm (less diversification of activities)
H6: Legal aid improves well-being, locus of control, and trust in others
• Legal aid recipients should experiences changes in measures from the PSS-10, ICD10, and WHO5 questioning corresponding to decreased feelings of depression and anxiety and increased loci of control.
• The following worries should also decrease: • F275: problems at home with relatives • F279: not enough money for food • F280: not enough money for education • F281: not enough money for living expense • F282: not enough money for medicines and medical treatment • F284: idleness of children or spouse • F286: debts owed to a family member • F287: debts owed to others
• f1087 Do you think most people would try to take advantage of you if they got a chance, or would they try to be fair?
• Response values measuring trust in the following groups of people should significantly increase (1. Distrust completely → 5. Trust completely): • F1092: nuclear family • F1093: friends • F1094: co-workers • F1095: people of another religion • F1096: rich people in community • F1097: poor people in community • F1098: political leaders • F1099: people from same clan • F1100: other clan • F1101: other ethnicities • F1102: policemen • F1103: government workers