Planning for Which Future? Understanding Micro-Entrepreneurs' Expectations

Last registered on April 02, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Planning for Which Future? Understanding Micro-Entrepreneurs' Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013141
Initial registration date
March 20, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 02, 2024, 10:35 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Adrien Dautheville
Affiliation
Norwegian School of Economics
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2024-03-08
End date
2025-08-31
Keywords
Behavior, Firms & Productivity, Lab
Additional Keywords
Beliefs, Job Search
JEL code(s)
C93;D03;D21;D83;D84;J64;O17;O12
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project will investigate the dynamic micro-entrepreneurs' expectations and business decisions. Like many other Sub-Saharan countries, Tanzania exhibits a landscape of numerous small-scale, unproductive firms alongside a handful of large, efficient corporations. Despite significant educational improvements, the youth's transition into formal salaried employment remains stagnant, mirroring the employment patterns of previous generations.
The first goal of this project is to identify and measure the potential over-optimism of micro-entrepreneurs in their likelihood of transitioning to a salaried position. Then, using a lab-in-the-field information treatment and first-hand longitudinal data of micro-entrepreneurs, I will causally estimate the effect of such expectations on business practices, investment decisions, and business growth.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Dautheville, Adrien. 2024. "Planning for Which Future? Understanding Micro-Entrepreneurs' Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. April 02. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13141-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Intervention Start Date
2024-03-08
Intervention End Date
2024-03-22

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
- Micro-entrepreneur’s expectations about their own chances of transitioning to a salaried job, and their peer’s chances of transitioning.
- Micro-entrepreneur’s expectations about the life expectancy of their current business
- Micro-entrepreneur’s take-up decision for a business training
- Micro-entrepreneur’s take-up decision for business information over job market information
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
- Micro-entrepreneur’s expectations about the future outcomes of their business (number of employees, sales, profit)
- Micro-entrepreneur’s ability to plan for their ideal business
- Micro-entrepreneur’s perception of return to job search effort
- Micro-entrepreneur’s intention to formalize their business activity
- Micro-entrepreneur’s intention to prioritize business development over job search
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study will survey Tanzanian micro-entrepreneurs, recruited on Markets in Dar es Salaam area. The sample will consist of 900 market traders, selected to be younger than 30 years old, and owner of their business. They will be sample over 20 to 30 market in Dar es Salaam.

Participants will be invited to REPOA’s headquarters to partake in a lab session where they will complete a survey. To tackle issues of transportation barriers and incentivize participation, we will provide a stipend and arrange transportation for the respondents, drawing on REPOAS’s successful precedents from similar studies.


Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
randomization done by a computer directly by ODK collect app
Randomization Unit
inidividual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
900
Sample size: planned number of observations
900
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
450
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
The sample size is chosen to ensure robust statistical power while balancing logistical feasibility. The proposed design allows the detection of an effect size of 0.2 standard deviations with a probability of 80%, using a standard 0.05 statistical significance. This allows for 12% (random) attrition between the baseline survey and the follow-up.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
NHH Norwegian School of Economics Institutional Review Board (NHH IRB)
IRB Approval Date
2024-02-05
IRB Approval Number
NHH-IRB 64/24
Analysis Plan

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