The Microeconomic Anatomy of Expectations on the Macroeconomy

Last registered on December 03, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Microeconomic Anatomy of Expectations on the Macroeconomy
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013242
Initial registration date
November 26, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 03, 2024, 1:29 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Netherlands
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Jessica Piccolo
Affiliation
Università di Padova
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Alessia Russo
PI Affiliation
University of Padova
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2024-05-06
End date
2024-05-28
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
Expectations, macroeconomics, subjective models of the macroeconomy
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The objective of this project is to collect novel survey data aiming to capture original evidence regarding consumers’ perception, understanding and expectations about macroeconomic conditions.

The survey aims to
• measure macroeconomic expectations about inflation, unemployment, and interest rates
• understand how such expectations are influenced by the individual’s interpretation of how the macroeconomy works.

The analysis of the data from this survey will allow to pinpoint the role of different determinants of subjective expectations (such as consumer sentiment, information, and subjective interpretation of macroeconomic events) to predict consumer reactions to macroeconomic shocks. This knowledge is crucial to designing more effective policy tools that account for predictable heterogeneity in consumer behaviour based on known drivers of subjective expectations.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Piccolo, Jessica and Alessia Russo. 2024. "The Microeconomic Anatomy of Expectations on the Macroeconomy." AEA RCT Registry. December 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13242-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The survey questions ask participants to express their views, understanding and expectations about macroeconomic conditions.
Some questions present hypothetical scenarios (vignettes) related to macroeconomic events, asking respondents to consider the potential impacts on economic indicators as well as on personal financial decisions.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2024-05-06
Intervention End Date
2024-05-28

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
• Perception of the current state of the economy: perceived current value of inflation, unemployment and mortgage interest rates
• expectations about macroeconomic variables
• sources of information about the economy
• optimism or pessimism about ones’ own economic situation
• understanding about the consequences of macroeconomic events (unexpected variations in interest rates, oil prices, taxes) on inflation, unemployment, and personal economic choices
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The survey will include vignettes-style questions. The vignettes describe hypothetical scenarios where the economy is hit by a macroeconomic shock (an unexpected variation in interest rates, oil prices, or taxes). Respondents are randomly assigned to one of two groups of 750 respondents each, randomized at the individual level by the LISS panel: one group will be exposed to scenarios where the macroeconomic variable of interest increases, and the other group will be exposed to scenarios where the variable decreases. Follow-up questions invite respondents to consider the impact of the shock on various aspects of the economy (inflation, unemployment, and one’s own inter-temporal choices).
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization: 50% of the sample will observe negative shocks, 50% of the sample will observe positive shocks. The randomization is performed by the online platform on which the respondents fill in the survey.
Randomization Unit
Individuals
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Coincide with the number of units
Sample size: planned number of observations
1500 households
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
750 households: scenarios describing positive macroeconomic shocks, 750 households: scenarios describing negative macroeconomic shocks
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Comitato Etico del Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche, Giuridiche e Studi Internazionali Università di Padova
IRB Approval Date
2024-04-08
IRB Approval Number
Prot. n. 1316
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials