Voting Behavior and Female Representation: Experimental Evidence from Turkey

Last registered on April 10, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Voting Behavior and Female Representation: Experimental Evidence from Turkey
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013295
Initial registration date
April 03, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 09, 2024, 5:04 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
April 10, 2024, 3:33 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Carlos Andres Molina Guerra
Affiliation
Massachusetts Institute of Technolohy.
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Ceren Baysan
PI Affiliation
University of Toronto
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PI Name
Antonia Paredes-Haz
PI Affiliation
Berkeley Haas
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PI Name
Gamze Zeki
PI Affiliation
Stockholm University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2023-12-15
End date
2024-12-15
Keywords
Gender
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
J16, J22
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project aim to explore why policies promoting gender equality remain underrepresented in conservative countries. We explore these issues in Turkey, a country that ranks 124th in gender equality measurements, 134th in female economic participation and opportunity, and 112th in women's political empowerment according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2022. We aim to use experimental variation to evaluate voter response to campaign promises on ``gender issues'' compared to voters in a control group who are not exposed to any campaign. To disentangle party or canvasser persuasion effects (supply) on voter behavior from campaign content (demand), we estimate the differential effect of the gender-related campaign to a placebo, a second campaign treatment arm on ``general issues.'' We plan to study the impact of our campaigns on voting behavior during elections. This protocol describes our experimental design prior to the 2024 election and complements our companion protocol (AEARCTR-0011469) which describes our experimental design prior to the 2023 election.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Baysan, Ceren et al. 2024. "Voting Behavior and Female Representation: Experimental Evidence from Turkey." AEA RCT Registry. April 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13295-1.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2023-12-15
Intervention End Date
2024-05-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Electoral data from the Supreme Election Council’s website (YSK)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The campaign consisted of a door-to-door visit in which a canvasser delivered and explained a brochure containing a subset of the party's promises. Each treated neighborhood is only assigned to one type of brochure, and each household in the neighborhood was visited. Two types of brochures exist:

-A brochure containing campaign policy pledges that the party deemed essential for female voters and promoting gender equality: e.g., establishing job training centers for women, establishing justice centers to provide legal support for victims of domestic violence, childcare, and support for caregivers. We will refer to this treatment arm as the female treatment.
-A brochure with campaign promises that were not designed to target preferences related to gender inequality. We will refer to this treatment arm as the general treatment. The party promises to use municipality resources more efficiently if elected, including increased savings, public participation in budget creation, and more transparent budgeting, are included in the brochures for all districts except Muğla and Kars. The brochure for Muğla held promises of earthquake-resistant housing and provisions for water and sewage systems. In Kars, the promises were related to ``youth" issues, like subsidizing university tuition.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done by a computer
Randomization Unit
Neighborhood
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
457
Sample size: planned number of observations
This is the number of ballot boxes, which we don't know yet as the electoral data has not been released
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
241 control, 108 female, 108 general
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
IRB Approval Date
2023-12-01
IRB Approval Number
E-5467
Analysis Plan

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