How does uncertainty influence moral behaviors?

Last registered on April 25, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
How does uncertainty influence moral behaviors?
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013358
Initial registration date
April 17, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 25, 2024, 11:43 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Jiajing Feng
Affiliation
University of Zurich
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Jindi Huang
PI Affiliation
University of Zurich
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-04-29
End date
2024-05-31
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study whether individuals engage in more moral behaviors when faced with uncertain outcomes. This hypothesis comes from a popular magical belief that moral behaviors lead to good luck under uncertainty. We conduct two online experiments in which we manipulate the level of uncertainty associated with potential payoffs and observe participants’ choices in a subsequent moral decision. In the first experiment, the moral decision is the same as the decision which determines the uncertain payoff. While this experiment induces the magical belief to the greatest extent, it suffers from confounder such as regret aversion. In the second experiment, we relax the direct connection by separating the moral decision and the decision that determines the uncertainty payoff to explore whether people's moral behaviors are still influenced by uncertainty.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Feng, Jiajing and Jindi Huang. 2024. "How does uncertainty influence moral behaviors?." AEA RCT Registry. April 25. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13358-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We study whether individuals engage in more moral behaviors when faced with uncertain outcomes. We conduct two online experiments in which we manipulate the level of uncertainty associated with potential payoffs and observe participants’ choices in a subsequent moral decision. In the first experiment, the moral decision is the same as the decision which determines the uncertain payoff. In the second experiment, we relax the direct connection by separating the moral decision and the decision that determines the uncertainty payoff.
Intervention Start Date
2024-04-29
Intervention End Date
2024-05-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcome variable is a dummy which equals 1 if subject i choose the box with additional RMB 4 in choice problem c and 0 otherwise
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
This can be directly observed from the collected data. When the selected box is the same as the box with additional money in that round, the variable equals 1, otherwise it equals 0.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
-Belief about winning the high bonus in the lottery when the person conducted moral or immoral behaviors
-Survey questions about the perception of the connection between moral behaviors and outcome of uncertainty.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We study whether individuals engage in more moral behaviors when faced with uncertain outcomes. We conduct two online experiments in which we manipulate the level of uncertainty associated with potential payoffs and observe participants’ choices in a subsequent moral decision. In the first experiment, the moral decision is the same as the decision which determines the uncertain payoff. In the second experiment, we relax the direct connection by separating the moral decision and the decision that determines the uncertainty payoff.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
We coded the experiment with Qualtrics and will run the experiment with a Chinese experimental platform. The randomization will be done by computer.
Randomization Unit
Round level. Each subject goes through 21 rounds. The payoff uncertainty differs across the rounds. One round is randomly selected to be payoff-relevant.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
240 subjects (21 rounds for each individual, cluster at individual level)
Sample size: planned number of observations
5040 observations (21 rounds per subject, 240*21 = 5040)
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
120 subjects per treatment, 240 subjects in total
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Human Subjects Committee of the Faculty of Economics, Business Administration, and Information Technology
IRB Approval Date
2024-04-17
IRB Approval Number
OEC IRB # 2024-040
Analysis Plan