THE CAUSAL EFFECTS OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON HOUSEHOLDS’ BELIEFS AND ACTIONS

Last registered on September 26, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
THE CAUSAL EFFECTS OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON HOUSEHOLDS’ BELIEFS AND ACTIONS
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014397
Initial registration date
September 19, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 26, 2024, 12:21 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Austria
Region
Country
Belgium
Region
Country
Germany
Region
Country
Finland
Region
Country
Greece
Region
Country
Ireland
Region
Country
Italy
Region
Country
Netherlands
Region
Country
Portugal
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Affiliation
UC Berkeley
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Olivier Coibion
PI Affiliation
University of Texas, Austin
PI Name
Dimitris Georgarakos
PI Affiliation
European Central Bank
PI Name
Geoff Kenny
PI Affiliation
European Central Bank

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2023-09-01
End date
2023-09-30
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
inflation uncertainty; consumption; household finance; labor supply; Consumer Expectations Survey.
JEL code(s)
E31, C83, D84, G51
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We implement a survey-based randomized information treatment that generates independent variation in the inflation expectations and the uncertainty about future inflation of European households.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Coibion, Olivier et al. 2024. "THE CAUSAL EFFECTS OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON HOUSEHOLDS’ BELIEFS AND ACTIONS ." AEA RCT Registry. September 26. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14397-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Provide households with publicly available information about inflation
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2023-09-01
Intervention End Date
2023-09-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
consumer spending, portfolio allocations, labor status
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Step 1: Elicit priors about inflation
Step 2: Randomly chosen households are informed about publicly available data on inflation.
Step 3: Elicit posteriors about inflation
Step 4: Measure outcome
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
survey respondent
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
~20,000 respondents
Sample size: planned number of observations
~20,000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
~5,000 per treatment arm
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials