Beliefs about AI and Financial Markets

Last registered on October 07, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Beliefs about AI and Financial Markets
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014494
Initial registration date
September 30, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 07, 2024, 7:09 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Johannes Beutel
Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Valentin Stockerl
PI Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-10-01
End date
2024-12-23
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
Artificial Intelligence, Finance, Financial Stability
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We elicit beliefs about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on financial markets, macroeconomic outcomes, and financial stability.
External Link(s)
Bundesbank Survey of Consumer Expectations
Bundesbank Survey of Firms

Registration Citation

Citation
Beutel, Johannes and Valentin Stockerl. 2024. "Beliefs about AI and Financial Markets." AEA RCT Registry. October 07. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14494-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Our survey contains an RCT with 3 treatment arms. The control group (first treatment arm) receives no information. The second treatment arm receives information about the likely benefits of AI for firms and the economy. The third treatment arm receives information about potential risks of AI.
Intervention Start Date
2024-10-01
Intervention End Date
2024-12-23

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
In the firm survey we elicit: Firm statistics (profits, costs, etc.), GDP growth expectations, Stock return expectations
For households, we elicit additional dimensions, for instance related to the narratives / subjective models households have in mind (how they think AI will affect the economy, financial markets, and financial stability).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
THE FULL QUESTIONNAIRE WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE WEBSITE OF THE BUNDESBANK SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS AND THE BUNDESBANK SURVEY OF FIRMS (SEE LINKS) SHORTLY AFTER THE FIELD PERIOD.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Our survey contains an RCT with 3 treatment arms. The control group (first treatment arm) receives no information. The second treatment arm receives information about the likely benefits of AI for firms and the economy. The third treatment arm receives information about potential risks of AI. The survey and RCT are fielded in the fourth quarter of 2024. We survey two types of respondents separately. The first sample consists of firms and is part of the Bundesbank's Survey of Firms. The second sample consists of households and is part of the Bundesbank Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Firms / Households
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
no clustering
Sample size: planned number of observations
We expect there to be roughly 9,000 firms, and roughly 4,000 households in the respective samples.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
The treatments are of equal size. Hence we expect roughly 3,000 firms per treatment arm. And roughly 1,333 households per treatment arm.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials