Job Search and Labor Market Perceptions – Experimental Evidence from Recent College Graduates

Last registered on October 28, 2024

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Job Search and Labor Market Perceptions – Experimental Evidence from Recent College Graduates
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014623
Initial registration date
October 21, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 28, 2024, 12:54 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Beijing Normal University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Beijing Normal University
PI Affiliation
Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics
PI Affiliation
Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-10-20
End date
2025-12-31
Secondary IDs
National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No. 72473010), Zhejiang Province Philosophy and Social Science Special Fund (Project No. 23QNYC14ZD)
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
In this field experiment, we investigate whether recent college graduates hold biased beliefs regarding certain primitives in job search models. Additionally, we assess whether providing information about these primitives of previous cohorts can help correct these biases.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
He, Haoran et al. 2024. "Job Search and Labor Market Perceptions – Experimental Evidence from Recent College Graduates." AEA RCT Registry. October 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14623-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
n/a
Intervention (Hidden)
We adopt a survey experiment approach to elicit graduates' beliefs about the labor market and their expectations regarding job search outcomes. The participants are upcoming graduates from a business school in China, who are about to face the choice of employment or further education. The Career Center conducts an annual survey on the employment situation of graduates, which allows us to flexibly integrate the intervention information into the survey process. We mainly focus on graduates with employment intentions, while those without are still surveyed under a hypothetical job-seeking scenario.

The survey begins by asking participants about their job search plans for the upcoming month, their beliefs regarding previous cohorts (hereafter referred to as "prior past beliefs"), and their confidence in these beliefs. We then implement a 2x2 experimental design that varies the provision of information on wage offers (average monthly income) and offer rates (median offer-to-application ratio). The first treatment group receives information about the previous cohort’s average wage. The second treatment group is provided with the median offer-to-application ratio from the previous cohort. The third treatment group sequentially receives information on both the offer rate and the average wage. A control group serves as a benchmark for comparison in the absence of any intervention. Finally, after the information is presented, participants' beliefs about their own cohort (hereafter referred to as "posterior future beliefs") are elicited once again.

To mitigate the risk of inattention obscuring genuine shifts in participants' beliefs throughout their prolonged job search, we send reminders of the intervention content via email and/or text messages at four and sixteen weeks after the main survey.

The follow-up survey will be administered as graduates near the end of their university studies, continuing with an online format. The aim is to collect data on students' job-seeking behaviors and outcomes. However, due to potential attrition, the sample size for this dataset may be relatively small. Its primary purpose is to serve as a robustness check and to provide supplementary evidence for the main analysis.
Intervention Start Date
2024-10-22
Intervention End Date
2025-06-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Posterior future beliefs: participants' beliefs about their own cohort after the intervention, particularly regarding wage offers and the perceived returns to search efforts.

Expected future search effort: participants' planned number of resume submissions and their intended time allocation for job search activities in the upcoming month.

Expected wage/Reservation wage: the expected monthly income participants anticipate earning, and the minimum monthly income they are willing to accept for a job.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The primary outcomes are obtained from the main survey at the time when they are likely to starting job seeking.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Realized employment status: whether participants have secured a job prior to graduating.

Realized monthly income: the monthly labor income participants earn, if employed.

Realized call-back rate: the proportion of job applications that receive responses from employers.

Realized offer rate: the proportion of job applications that lead to formal job offers.

Realized time of offer acceptance: the point at which a participant formally agrees to accept a job offer.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
The secondary outcomes are obtained from the follow-up survey at the time closed to their graduation, and thus are subject to strong attrition.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
In collaboration with the Career Center of a university in Zhejiang province, we conduct a field experiment to investigate the impact of information provision on recent graduates’ beliefs regarding the job market and their job-searching strategies.
Experimental Design Details
Main survey
1.First stage - basic information
We initially gather information such as student ID numbers, major, post-graduation intentions, and internship experiences from the graduates. It’s worth noting that we did not inquire about covariates like GPA and some demographic variables in the questionnaire as they are already included in the school’s (anonymized) administrative data. We just use student ID numbers to link responses from the questionnaire with the information in the database.

2.Second stage - belief elicitation
The second stage of our survey consists of two parts. In the former part, we focus on participants' job search plans for the upcoming month. We begin by asking their expected monthly income and minimum monthly income they are willing to accept for a job. Additionally, we examine their expected job search efforts, including the weekly hours they plan to dedicate to job searching and the number of applications they expect to submit each week. Besides, we ask participants to estimate their anticipated success rate in securing offers relative to the total number of applications submitted.

In the latter part of the stage, we explore participants' beliefs about key labor market parameters, particularly regarding some primitives in job search models. Based on their knowledge of the labor market, we ask them to estimate the employment rate, median offer rate, and average monthly income for last year’s graduates in their major field. Additionally, we inquire about other expectations that may be relevant to the labor market. Following each question, participants rate their confidence in these estimates using a 5-point Likert scale, ranging from "very unsure" to "very sure."

3.Third stage - information provision
We prepare two types of intervention information: average monthly income, and median offer-to-application ratio. The specific contents are as follows.
Average Monthly Income (AMI):
•Your initial estimate for the average monthly income of last year’s graduates in your major field was X1 RMB.
•A sample survey conducted among last year’s graduates reveals that the actual average monthly income is Y1 RMB.
•This means the average monthly income of last year’s graduates in your major field is higher/lower than your estimate by (Y1-X1) RMB.
(Comprehension Check)
•The average monthly income of last year’s graduates is (higher/lower) compared to your estimate.

Median Offer-to-Application Ratio (MOAR):
•Your initial estimate for the median offer-to-application ratio among last year's graduates in your major field was X2%.
•A sample survey conducted among last year's graduates reveals that the actual median success rate is Y2%, meaning that for 10 job applications submitted, 0.1*Y2 job offers were received.
•This means the median job application success rate of last year’s graduates in your major field is higher/lower than your estimate by (Y2-X2)%.
(Comprehension Check)
•The job application success rate of last year's graduates is (higher/lower) compared to your estimate.

Note that the two categories of information correspond to specific questions in the belief elicitation stage. The values of the variables within this information are tailored to each participant's major field of study and their prior responses. The specific values of Y1 and Y2 are drawn from the university’s survey data from the previous cohort of graduates.

We implement a stratified randomization strategy at the class level. Participants are segregated into four distinct groups, which constitutes a 2x2 experimental design. Interventions assigned to each group are as follows:
Control (T0): No information
Treatment 1(T1): AMI
Treatment 2(T2): MOAR
Treatment 3(T3): MOAR+AMI

In this way, we can examine the individual effects of the interventions while also exploring their interaction effects. To ensure that participants fully understand the information provided, we incorporate a comprehension check following the intervention details. After participants submit their responses, the correct answers will be displayed in a pop-up window.

4.Fourth stage - belief updating
In this stage, we re-elicit the participants’ beliefs in the similar way as in the second stage. The only difference is that we replace the reference group with their peers in the same cohort who intend to work, instead of last year’s graduates. These questions reveal the job seekers’ expectations of the current labor market.

In addition, we re-elicit the participants’ reservation wages and their job-search strategies for the upcoming month.

5.Fifth stage - supplementary information
In the final stage of our analysis, we broaden the scope of our inquiry to include a wider range of labor market beliefs and personality traits. The beliefs encompass participants’ expectations about future economic conditions, how their peers' jobs match their major and geographic location, as well as their self-assessed competitiveness compared to their peers. The personality traits under examination include social network pressure, openness to new experiences, locus of control, risk preference, time preference, self-esteem, and optimism. These questions may facilitate a more thorough exploration of the underlying mechanisms and heterogeneous effects.

Reminders
We sent email and/or text messages to remind them of the intervention content 4 weeks and 16 weeks after the main survey. To avoid participants mistaking reminders for new information, we tell them that we are repeating the information in the previous survey.

Follow-up survey
The follow-up survey will be administered before students' graduation, as part of the Career Center's annual routine. For researchers, this survey provides valuable data on students' job-search behavior and labor market outcomes. Additionally, we add some questions related to labor market beliefs, which offer insights into the dynamic evolution of these beliefs throughout the job search process.

Since the follow-up survey does not involve any experimental interventions, its content remains consistent for all participants. The datasets from both survey waves are merged using students' unique identifiers. However, due to attrition, the follow-up survey dataset is typically smaller than the initial survey dataset.
Randomization Method
We conducted stratified randomization based on students' major fields (Economics, Management, and Others) and their affiliated schools.
Randomization Unit
The unit of randomization is at the class level.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
119 classes
Sample size: planned number of observations
about 2900 senior students
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
T0 (Control): about 800 students
T1 (AMI) : 800 students
T2 (MOAR) : 800 students
T3 (AMI+MOAR): 500 students
Note that the above size refers to the planned allocation of students to each treatment arms, rather than the actual size of respondents. Consequently, the sample size we ultimately achieve may be less than this figure.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Unit of measurement: the fraction of students whether sign for a job contract. For a type I error probability of alpha=0.05 and a power of 1-k=0.8, and N=800 per treatment arm, the standardized minimum detectable effect size is 0.140 standard deviations. The standard deviation of out outcome variable is highest when half of students find jobs and the other half not, in which case s.d.=0.5. In this most extreme case, the minimum detectable effect size (MDE) would be a change in employment of about 7.0 percentage points (=0.5x0.140).
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Business School, Beijing Normal University
IRB Approval Date
2024-10-21
IRB Approval Number
BNU-BS-IRB 2024-032
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials