US Elections and trust

Last registered on November 19, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
US Elections and trust
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014746
Initial registration date
November 01, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
November 19, 2024, 3:48 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Irma Clots-Figueras
Affiliation
University of Kent
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Antonio Cabrales
PI Affiliation
UC3M
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PI Name
Roberto Hernan
PI Affiliation
Burgundy School of Business
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PI Name
Praveen Kujal
PI Affiliation
University of Middlesex
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2020-11-01
End date
2027-01-31
Keywords
Behavior, Electoral, Governance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
D91, D72, C92
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study aims to examine how trust and trustworthiness measures, both experimental and survey-based, are impacted by electoral outcomes. We will conduct a three-wave experiment (before elections, immediately after, and three months post-election) using a binary trust game and survey questionnaires. The study will investigate how political affiliation and electoral expectations interact with trust measures following electoral results. Participants will be recruited through Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT), with data collection occurring across three distinct time periods surrounding a major election.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Cabrales, Antonio et al. 2024. "US Elections and trust." AEA RCT Registry. November 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14746-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We will conduct a three-wave experiment (before elections, immediately after, and three months post-election) using a binary trust game and survey questionnaires. The study will investigate how political affiliation and electoral expectations interact with trust measures following electoral results. Participants will be recruited through Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT), with data collection occurring across three distinct time periods surrounding a major election.
Intervention Start Date
2024-11-03
Intervention End Date
2024-11-08

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Primary Outcome Measures
1. Experimental Trust:
- Binary choice in trust game (Sender’s decision)
- Amount returned (Receiver’s decision)
2. Survey Trust Measures:
- Trust in strangers (1-5 scale)
- Trust in national government (1-5 scale)
- Trust in local government (1-5 scale)
- Trust in family and friends (1-5 scale)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Measures
1. Political Variables:
- Political affiliation
- Voting history
- Electoral expectations
- Actual voting behavior

2. Demographic Variables:
- Age
- Gender
- Education level
- Ethnicity
- Religious affiliation
- Socieconomic status
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Sampling Plan
- Population: US-based participants on Amazon Mechanical Turk
- Target sample size: Approximately 400 participants per wave (1,200 total)
- Exclusion criteria:
- Previous participation in similar trust experiments
- Failed attention checks
- Incomplete responses
- Non-US residents

Experimental Design
1. Between-subjects design with three waves:
- Wave 1: Pre-election (1-2 weeks before)
- Wave 2: Immediate post-election (within 2 weeks after)
- Wave 3: Follow-up (3 months post-election)

2. Each participant will complete:
- Binary trust game
- Comprehensive survey questionnaire
Procedures
1. Participant Recruitment
- AMT listing with study description
- Initial screening for US residence
- Random assignment to roles in trust game ( players play in strategy form and then they are randomly assigned to their role for payment, they know this).

2. Experimental Protocol
- Informed consent
- Trust game instructions and comprehension check
- Trust game decisions
- Survey completion
- Payment processing

3. Payment Structure
- Base participation fee: $0.90
- Additional earnings from trust game
- Expected duration: 15-20 minutes
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
- Random assignment to roles in trust game ( players play in strategy form and then they are randomly assigned to their role for payment, they know this).
Randomization Unit
Participant
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
No clusters
- Target sample size: Approximately 400 participants per wave (1,200 total)
Sample size: planned number of observations
1200
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
There are no treatment arms, some participants will participate before the election and others afterwards.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Middlesex
IRB Approval Date
2020-04-22
IRB Approval Number
8223 Kujal Amendment Form-we are asking for a simple extension of this approval
Analysis Plan