Causal Effect of Inflation Expectations on Human Capital Investment and Employment Decisions: Evidence from CUNY, the Public University System in New York City

Last registered on December 17, 2024

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Causal Effect of Inflation Expectations on Human Capital Investment and Employment Decisions: Evidence from CUNY, the Public University System in New York City
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015034
Initial registration date
December 15, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 17, 2024, 9:11 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
CUNY

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2022-09-05
End date
2027-06-30
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
Using an original survey fielded to CUNY students during Spring 2023, and randomizing information treatments to identify exogenous variation in inflation and unemployment expectations, I will estimate whether, contemporaneously, individuals in the treatment groups place significantly less weight on their priors than do those in the control group. This analysis constitutes the first-stage estimation.
Using the exogenous information on inflation expectations from the first-stage estimation, and collecting information on students’ (1) self-reported human capital investment decisions from the survey; (2) actual human capital accumulation from CUNY administrative data; and (3) actual employment and earnings trajectories from NYS DOL, we will estimate the causal impact of inflation expectations on CUNY students’ human capital investment and employment decisions. To do so, we will rely on an instrumental variable (IV) strategy in which the information treatments from the first stage will be used to identify exogenous variation in inflation expectations.
Finally, using the exogenous information on inflation expectations from the first-stage estimation, and survey information on students’ self-reported ability to pay for bills, rent, and food, we will estimate the causal impact of inflation expectations on CUNY students perceived ability to pay a variety of different bills, rent, and food.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Rodriguez-Planas, Nuria. 2024. "Causal Effect of Inflation Expectations on Human Capital Investment and Employment Decisions: Evidence from CUNY, the Public University System in New York City." AEA RCT Registry. December 17. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15034-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
I collected information on a range of individuals’ expectations, both about the aggregate economy and their own economic situation during Spring 2023. The survey also included a randomized information treatment, which was followed by a few additional questions on the behavior and expectations of the same respondents regarding ability to pay bills, human capital investments and employment expectations to assess whether and how the information treatments affected their beliefs and outcomes relative to the untreated control group. Survey data will be merged with administrative data from CUNY and the NYS DOL so I can observe respondents’ subsequent academic and labor market behavior of these individuals over the next four years after responding the survey.
Intervention Start Date
2023-04-05
Intervention End Date
2023-06-21

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
- Inflation expectations
- Self-reported human capital investment decisions from the survey
- Actual human capital accumulation from CUNY administrative data
- Actual employment and earnings trajectories from NYS DOL
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
- Self-reported ability to pay for bills, rent, and food
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Survey respondents were randomized into two treatment groups, one falsification group, and two control groups. The first treatment group was given a signal of inflation (T1); and the second treatment group was given a signal of inflation plus information on this possible impact on the labor market (T2).
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in the office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
3 clusters
Sample size: planned number of observations
Over 2000 respondents
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
450 T1; 450 T2; 450 Falsification group; 900 Control group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
CUNY University Integrated Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2023-03-28
IRB Approval Number
IRB file #2020-0475-QC on July 21st, 2020, amended on March 28 2023