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Inflation Expectations and Family Formation and Dissolution

Last registered on May 14, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Inflation Expectations and Family Formation and Dissolution
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015763
Initial registration date
April 29, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 30, 2025, 1:35 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
May 14, 2025, 11:06 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Serena Trucchi
Affiliation
Cardiff University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Berkay Özcan
PI Affiliation
NYU Abu Dhabi
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PI Name
Concetta Rondinelli
PI Affiliation
Bank of Italy
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-04-07
End date
2026-05-31
Keywords
Behavior, Gender
Additional Keywords
Inflation Expectations, Fertility Intentions, Marriage
JEL code(s)
C83; D84; E31; J13.
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study investigates how information about inflation, both general and specific to child-rearing costs, affects fertility intentions and family formation and dissolution. Using a survey-based randomised information experiment, we elicit individuals’ expectations about future inflation and then provide a randomly selected subset of participants with factual data on recent price trends. We assess how this information influences inflation expectations, fertility intentions, ideal family size, and the perceived likelihood of marriage or divorce. Our findings contribute to the literature on economic uncertainty and demographic behaviour by highlighting the role of inflation expectations in shaping life-cycle decisions. In doing so, we provide new evidence on the channels through which macroeconomic conditions influence family formation.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Rondinelli, Concetta, Serena Trucchi and Berkay Özcan. 2025. "Inflation Expectations and Family Formation and Dissolution." AEA RCT Registry. May 14. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15763-1.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Individuals will be randomly assigned to different information treatment about inflation in the Netherlands.
Intervention Start Date
2025-05-05
Intervention End Date
2025-06-26

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
- Inflation expectations for the next 12 months (both about consumer prices in general and prices related to raising children);
- Fertility intentions in the short-run (12 months) and medium-run (3 years);
- If married or in a committed relationship: Probability of divorce and separation in the short-run (12 months) and medium-run (3 years);
- If not married or in a committed relationship: Probability of marriage or getting into a committed relationship (cohabitation).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
- Perceived cost of raising a child;
- Macroeconomic conditions in the short-run (12 months) and medium-run (3 years);
- Intention to move to a larger house (long-term commitment);
- Norms and perceptions about ideal family size.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Survey-based randomised information experiment.
We will first collect baseline data on individuals’ inflation perceptions and expectations and their prior about family formation and dissolution.
We will provide randomly selected subsets of respondents with publicly available information on recent inflation.
Finally, we will elicit posteriors about inflation and family formation and dissolution.

Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomisation will be implemented automatically by the survey software upon entering the questionnaire.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1,600 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
1,600 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
400 individuals
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
The experimental design comprises three treatment arms and one control group, resulting in four groups overall. The effect size is measured using Cohen’s f, which quantifies the minimum magnitude of between-group differences that can be detected with the given sample size, assuming a power of 80% and a significance level of 5%. Our sample size (1,600 individuals) allows us to estimate an effect of 16.6%, which is considered a small-to-moderate effect size using conventional effect size thresholds.
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
New York University Abu Dhabi Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2025-04-17
IRB Approval Number
HRPP-2025-79
Analysis Plan