Mental Models of High School Success -- Causal Evidence

Last registered on December 01, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Mental Models of High School Success -- Causal Evidence
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015963
Initial registration date
May 06, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 14, 2025, 10:21 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
December 01, 2025, 5:04 AM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Denmark
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Theresa Hübsch
Affiliation
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Helene Willadsen
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Robert Mahlstedt
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Pia Pinger
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Sonja Settele
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2025-05-07
End date
2025-08-01
Keywords
Behavior, Education, Gender
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
D83, D84, I24
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We conduct an experiment with Danish adolescents who approach the end of elementary school to study the causal effect of exposure to information about gender differences in school performance in the context of upper secondary education. We invite 20 percent of the Danish female population born in 2009 to participate in an online survey. In the survey, everyone receives information about the performance of boys in upper secondary education. Subsequently, we randomly assign one half of the respondents to a treatment group that also receives information on the performance of girls in upper secondary school, while the remaining half forms a pure control group that does not receive information. Post-treatment, we elicit respondents’ own success expectations if they were to start upper secondary education – our main outcome of interest. We also measure posterior beliefs about the performance of girls relative to boys in upper secondary education, as well as a set of secondary outcomes, such as planned study effort and hypothetical school track recommendation decisions to male vs. female peers.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hübsch, Theresa et al. 2025. "Mental Models of High School Success -- Causal Evidence." AEA RCT Registry. December 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15963-1.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-05-07
Intervention End Date
2025-08-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
- Expected probability of own success (graduating high school with a GPA ≥ 7)
- Expected final GPA
- Posterior beliefs: Updated success probability beliefs about one's own cohort
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
- Effort investment (expected study hours per week)
- Expected enjoyment of high school
- Expected probability of ever enrolling at a university
- Track recommendation for hypothetical peers (boy/girl with similar grades)
- Enrollment probability beliefs for girls vs. boys born in 2002 with similar elementary school grades as the respondent
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
A main and a follow-up survey with adolescent girls currently enrolled in Danish schools, mainly in grade 9.
In our main survey, participants will be randomly assigned (50-50) into treatment and control group. Participants in the treatment group receive true information about the success rate of girls and boys with similar grades, while the control group receives no information treatment. Subsequently, we measure various beliefs about respondents' own success chances and the success chances of other adolescents.
In the follow-up survey, there is no new information provided, nor is the originally provided information repeated. We simply measure the main outcomes: posterior beliefs (success probabilities beliefs about one's own cohort), expected probability of own success, and expected final GPA .
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual level
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
700 - 800 adolescent girls
Sample size: planned number of observations
700 - 800 adolescent girls
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
350-400 individuals treated, 350-400 individuals control
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

Documents

Document Name
Pre-registration
Document Type
other
Document Description
File
Pre-registration

MD5: 3024fb0c367290ea4396f9afbde3f8f4

SHA1: 0a8657ce088075edb2a658bd68efc364e8fab4ec

Uploaded At: May 06, 2025

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Research Ethics Committee at the Department of Economics of Copenhagen University
IRB Approval Date
2025-04-01
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials