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Creating a Virtual Economic Environment to Simulate and Predict Economic Trend.

Last registered on May 27, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Creating a Virtual Economic Environment to Simulate and Predict Economic Trend.
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015993
Initial registration date
May 11, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 27, 2025, 6:42 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
China
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Cao Huajie
Affiliation
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-05-10
End date
2026-01-01
Keywords
Other
Additional Keywords
virtual economic enviroment, prediction, Simulated competition
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
I believe that the economic trend can be predicted by create a virtual economic environment which close to reality. In this case, I design some rules and divide participants in to two different groups entrepreneurs and government official.

Based on the assumption of full demand and full employment, I consider that the main influence of the economy lie in entrepreneurs and government officials. Therefore, throughout the entire game, the participants who play the role of entrepreneurs compete to become the ultimate monopolist, while government official have to increase the city's GDP as much as possible on the basis of avoiding the emergence of monopolist.

This experiment addresses two key questions:
1. How can we create a virtual economic environment which close to reality?
2. How will the data of the virtual environment assist real world?

The first question stems directly from my new rules, which create a simple basic model that conforms to the laws of reality. The answer of second question is that we need to collect a large amount of experimental data, sort and classify these experiment data, and finally select the data that best represents reality from them as the reference for reality

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Huajie, Cao. 2025. "Creating a Virtual Economic Environment to Simulate and Predict Economic Trend.." AEA RCT Registry. May 27. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15993-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
A total of 100 people were invited to participate in this experiment. They were evenly divided into ten groups. Within each group, two people formed a small group (one person make decision and the other one for calculation). According to the order of participation, the first ten people were assigned to the treatment, and the remaining ninety people were assigned as the control group.

Intervention Start Date
2025-05-19
Intervention End Date
2025-12-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
I will focus on adjusting the detailed issues in the experimental rules to avoid the generation of unreasonable data
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
I assigned assistants to all the participants to calculate their income and expenditure for each round. These assistants would review the abnormal data after each trial.Then we will adjust the size of the values in the game to balance the game

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
I will pay attention to the decisions made by all participants in business competition behaviors and the consequences brought about by these decisions
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
After each experiment, I will review the players' behaviors and discuss the reasons for such decisions and improvement plans

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
I tring to create new rules as the worldview of the experiment which close to reality world as possible. In this experiment, each participant uses their ability of analysis, bargain, and information collection to be a final monopolist. And we review the hole game to observe the economic trend and to find out the points which can cause the significant economic fluctuation. At the end of game, we discuss the decision the participant made, and try to find the method of optimization.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
randomization made by draw
Randomization Unit
individual(participans)
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
10 matching group.
10 subjects participate in one group(one subjects corresponds to one assistants that assisstants help the subjects deal with calculation). In the same group, 4 participants played the role of entrepreneurs, 1 participant played the role of a government official, and 5 participants acted as assistants.
Sample size: planned number of observations
100 subjects will be evenly distributed among 10 matchong groups.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
10 matching group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan