Cold Climate Heat Pump Assistance Program

We have two treatment arms

1. Direct installation of a hybrid natural gas furnace and cold climate air source heat pump (CCASHP) system
2. Fuel switching by direct installation of a CCASHP

2025-06-30

2026-12-31

1) Annual Natural Gas Consumption (billing data), 2) Annual Electricity Consumption (smart meter data), 3) Indoor Temperature and Humidity (separately by summer and winter), 4) Measured indoor air quality (NOx, VOC, CO$_2$, and PM), 5) Indoor behavior (Survey section Energy use behavior and comfort questions 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13 ), 6) Quality of heating system (Survey section Existing heating system questions 2-3 and their subparts), 7) Quality of cooling system (Survey section Existing cooling system questions 5 and its subparts), 8) Energy affordability (Survey sections: Energy use behavior and home comfort in the winter/summer, Energy Affordability and Health questions 14-16), 9) Energy health (Survey sections: Energy use behavior and home comfort in the winter/summer, Energy Affordability and Health questions 14-16)

A copy of the survey has been pre-filed and hidden. We will evaluate each primary outcome by constructing a mean effects index and we will also present estimates for each individual indicator within each outcome category.

1) Contractor installation quality as a function of number of installations, 2) Changes in electricity consumption by hour separately by season, 3) Comparing real-world performance of CCASHP to manufacturer rated performance, 4) Compare standard retrofit software modeled performance of average savings to realized average savings, 5) How does CCASHP performance diminish with outdoor air temperature, 6) Greenhouse gas emissions changes under the two treatments.

Treatment Group A: Conversion of a natural gas furnace to a hybrid natural gas furnace and CCASHP system

Treatment group B: Fuel switching by direct installation of a CCASHP system

Control group A: Conversion of a natural gas furnace to a hybrid natural gas furnace and CCASHP system after a one-year monitoring period.

Control group B: Direct installation of a CCASHP system after a one-year monitoring period

The randomization will occur at the end of the Pre-inspection, Consent and Air Quality Monitoring installation visit, which occurs after the participant's eligibility is verified and they have expressed a desire to enroll in the program.

As part of this visit, the following will be done:
1) Customer fills out the baseline survey
2) Customer signs the participation agreement (if not already done online)
3) Customer activates the data sharing agreement with Green Button
4) Contractor installs air quality monitor
5) Contractor changes air filter

The target sample size is 200 customers, who will be randomized in blocks of four across the following treatment groups. Specifically, for every four customers who complete the Pre-Inspection, Consent, Air Quality Monitoring installation, and Baseline survey visit, one customer will be randomly assigned to each treatment group. This block randomization approach ensures balance in treatment assignment across installation timing.

If customers subsequently decide to no longer go forward with the heat pump installation, we will still be able to collect data on gas and electricity consumption and air quality, unless customers also opt out of data sharing

An endline survey will be performed in all groups around a year after the treatment groups in the block received installation.

Not available

Block randomization done by computer and pre-specified

Household

No

1

200 households, for energy consumption outcomes, we will use up to 24 months of billing data pre and post.

50 Treatment Group A, 50 Treatment Group B, 50 Control Group A, 50 Control Group B.

Using existing utility data the MDE for electricity consumption is 10%