Households’ Expectations about Climate Change: Demand or Supply?

Last registered on June 16, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Households’ Expectations about Climate Change: Demand or Supply?
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016232
Initial registration date
June 16, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 16, 2025, 12:08 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Michal Marenčák
Affiliation
National Bank of Slovakia
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Giang Nghiem
PI Affiliation
Leibniz University Hannover
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Tjantana Barro
PI Affiliation
University of Konstanz
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-06-17
End date
2025-06-30
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance, Labor
Additional Keywords
macroeconomics, climate change, monetary policy
JEL code(s)
E31, E50, C93, D84, Q54, Q58
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
It remains an open question in monetary economics how households perceive the economic consequences of the green transition. Specifically, do they view its impact on growth and inflation as driven by demand or supply? This study has one main objective. It aims to causally analyze how information about the supply- and demand-side consequences of the green transition influences households’ beliefs about inflation and economic growth.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Barro, Tjantana , Michal Marenčák and Giang Nghiem. 2025. "Households’ Expectations about Climate Change: Demand or Supply?." AEA RCT Registry. June 16. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16232-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Our experimental setup involves providing households with targeted informational treatments about the supply- or demand-driven economic implications of the green transition. We will then analyze their responses to determine whether their views align with a supply- or demand-driven interpretation.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-06-17
Intervention End Date
2025-06-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Households' expectations about long-term economic growth and inflation
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We begin by providing general information to every participant, without any randomization at this stage. Afterward, we will split the sample into three groups based on a randomly assigned variable: (1) Non-treated control group, (2) Group receiving information about demand-driven consequences of the green transition, and (3) Group receiving information about supply-driven implications of the green transition. After these treatments, we elicit respondents' expectations about inflation and economic growth and compare them with the pre-treatment expectations as well as across the treated and controlled respondents.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
randomization done in an online survey by a computer
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1 pool
Sample size: planned number of observations
2000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
ca. one third control group, ca. one third with the supply side view, ca. one third with the demand side view
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials