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Auditing from Below: Experimental Evidence from Consumer Receipt Lottery

Last registered on November 17, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Auditing from Below: Experimental Evidence from Consumer Receipt Lottery
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016251
Initial registration date
November 11, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
November 17, 2025, 7:11 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Lahore University of Management Sciences

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Washington

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-10-01
End date
2026-12-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Governments are increasingly complementing traditional audit-based enforcement with consumer-targeted interventions that enlist citizens in monitoring tax compliance. Among these, consumer receipt lotteries—programs that reward shoppers with entry into prize draws for submitting verified sales invoices—aim to strengthen the enforcement chain by encouraging consumers to demand formal receipts. Yet rigorous evidence on their effectiveness and interaction with administrative enforcement remains limited. We conduct the first randomized field experiment of a consumer receipt lottery in the hospitality sector of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, where business eligibility for the lottery is randomly assigned and cross-randomized with priority-enforcement status within the tax authority. We additionally test whether the receipt lottery reinforces tax authority–driven enforcement in improving compliance outcomes. On the consumer side, we test messaging interventions that frame participation in the lottery as either helping the government enforce taxes (“auditor” framing) or ensuring that taxes they pay are properly transmitted (“taxpayer” framing), allowing us to identify how different enforcement narratives shape consumer engagement and compliance outcomes. We leverage administrative VAT data, firm and consumer surveys, and mystery-shopping audits to comprehensively examine both the direct and indirect effects of the intervention. Specifically, we assess the impact of the treatments on formal invoice issuance, reported revenues, and potential spillovers to non-participating firms, as well as changes in taxpayer–official interactions, rent-seeking behavior, tax morale, and perceptions of state capacity.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Asad, Sher Afghan and Isabelle Cohen. 2025. "Auditing from Below: Experimental Evidence from Consumer Receipt Lottery." AEA RCT Registry. November 17. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16251-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Our primary intervention is a consumer lottery in the hospitality sector of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan. Customers at eligible businesses will be able to submit receipts through WhatsApp.

Our secondary intervention is designating certain businesses as high priority for the tax authority. We do this by controlling the order in which businesses show up following potential non-compliance in a custom dashboard used by the tax authority.

We also implement other randomized interventions. First, for the subset of businesses using linked point-of-sale devices, we will send letters from the tax authority that inform them about discrepancies between the devices and returns. Second, customers who submit receipts will receive randomized messages with different framings (control, information, consumer-as-taxpayer, and customer-as-auditor) through both automated responses and a brief online survey.
Intervention Start Date
2025-11-17
Intervention End Date
2026-03-27

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our key outcome variables are,
For businesses:
- formal invoice issuance (measured through administrative data, mystery shopping data, and survey data)
- reported revenue (measured through administrative data and survey data)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
We also plan to look at, for businesses:
- spillovers to non-participating firms
- changes in taxpayer-official interactions
- changes in taxpayer-consumer interactions
- prices
- business performance (employment, foot traffic)
- rent-seeking behavior
- tax morale
- perceptions of state capacity
- documentation
For individual consumers, we look at:
- receipt submission
- tax morale
- perceptions of state capacity
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We randomize first at the business level, assigning businesses to be part of the lottery (66% of the sample) or not (33% of the sample). Within those in the lottery, 50% (33% of the total sample) will be randomly assigned to priority enforcement.

As well, for the subsample of businesses in the sample who have linked point-of-sale devices, we randomize them into receiving letters (50%) and not-receiving letters (50%). This part of the experiment also includes some businesses from cities outside of our main sample, which will also be randomized in the same proportions.

All customers who submit receipts will be individually randomized into a control group or a messaging treatment group.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Businesses, individual consumers
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Approximately 1,000 businesses; all consumers who participate in the lottery.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Approximately 1,000 businesses; all consumers who participate in the lottery.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Two-thirds of businesses will be in the lottery; the final one-third will not. Half of the businesses in the lottery (one-third of the total sample) will be randomized into priority enforcement. Half of the businesses with linked point-of-sale devices will be randomized into the letter treatment. Consumers will be split evenly between messaging groups.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Lahore University of Management Sciences
IRB Approval Date
2025-06-19
IRB Approval Number
LUMS-IRB-0378/06192025/SAA-FWA-00030383
IRB Name
University of Washington
IRB Approval Date
2025-03-26
IRB Approval Number
STUDY00022744