Interpersonal trust, trust in central banks and central bank communication

Last registered on August 04, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Interpersonal trust, trust in central banks and central bank communication
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016427
Initial registration date
August 01, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 04, 2025, 6:25 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Jonas Dovern
Affiliation
Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-08-02
End date
2026-05-31
Keywords
Governance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
E31, E58
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project studies the role that interpersonal trust has on the effectiveness of central bank communication. In particular, I investigate how the effect of providing information about central bank policies on trust in central banks and on inflation expectations varies with the level of interpersonal trust.

I conduct a survey among private households in Germany that elicits interpersonal trust, trust in the central bank and inflation expectations. The survey includes an RCT that provides different information/facts about the central bank’s policy to different treatment groups. I then analyze to what extent heterogeneity of treatment effects on trust in the central bank and inflation expectations can be systematically explained by interpersonal trust.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Dovern, Jonas. 2025. "Interpersonal trust, trust in central banks and central bank communication." AEA RCT Registry. August 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16427-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We run a survey experiment using a panel of private households in Germany that is provided by Norstat.

The survey includes the following RCT: The RCT exogenously varies the information about the ECB’s policy that private households see. The first treatment group receives information about the ECB’s mandate/inflation target and a brief explanation of how interest rate policy is used to bring inflation towards the target. The second treatment group receives information about the ECB’s historical track record in terms of the inflation rate since 1999. The third group receives information about both the historical track record and the mandate/inflation target. A control group does not receive any information.
Intervention Start Date
2025-08-02
Intervention End Date
2025-10-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
inflation expectations (with expectation horizons of 12 and 24 months; in percent), assessment of likelihood of reaching inflation target in the medium term (0-10), general trust in central bank (0-10), trust in rule- and science-based ECB policy (0-10).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Our first primary outcomes are measures of trust in the central bank. First, a general measure on a scale from 0 to 10. Second, the perceived likelihood that the central bank will meet its inflation target in the medium run (measured on a scale from 0 to 10). Third, a measure of trust that the ECB conducts its policy in a rule-based fashion and based on scientific evidence (measured on a scale from 0 to 10).

Our second primary outcomes are measures of inflation expectations with expectation horizons of twelve and 24 months, respectively.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Narratives about distrust in central bank
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Participants that indicate a trust in the central bank of below 5 in the post-treatment stage of the survey are asked to provide a short text explaining why they tend to not trust the central bank. I will identify and analyze reoccurring narratives. In particular, I will test if the frequency of different narratives differs across the treatment arms.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The RCT exogenously varies the information about the ECB’s policy that private households see during the survey. These information treatments are displayed on a separate screen after we elicit priors and before we elicit posteriors. Survey participants are asked to confirm that they have carefully read the provided information.

I use cross-individuals variation to identify the treatment effects.

The survey elicits priors and posteriors for the outcome variables. That allows me to control for priors when analyzing treatment effects or to directly measure the treatment effect on the differences between priors and posteriors.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
The randomization is done automatically by drawing random numbers during the execution of the surveys (via Limesurvey).
Randomization Unit
Randomization is done at the level of indidivual households who participate in the survey.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
n.a.
Sample size: planned number of observations
3,000 private households
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 750 private households will serve as a control group. The first treatment (information about mandate) will be rolled out to approximately 750 private households. The second treatment (/information about historical performance) will be rolled out to approximately 1,000 private households. The final treatment will be rolled out to approximately 500 private households.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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