Eliciting expectation posteriors: the role of information provision about priors

Last registered on August 04, 2025
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Eliciting expectation posteriors: the role of information provision about priors
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016435
Initial registration date
August 01, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 04, 2025, 6:22 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Primary Investigator

Name
Jonas Dovern
Affiliation
Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Annabell Schneider
PI Affiliation
Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-08-02
End date
2026-05-31
Keywords
Other
Additional Keywords
Macroeconomics
JEL code(s)
E31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Many studies of macroeconomic expectations are based on RCTs embedded in surveys that elicit priors and posteriors of expectations. Treatment effects are either estimated for the difference between posteriors and priors directly or for the slope coefficient corresponding to the weight that participants attribute to their prior when forming a posterior. A recent paper (Abberger et al., 2025) proposes to inform survey participants about their previously stated priors when eliciting posteriors. This is not commonly done due to fear of anchoring effects. This project will study the effects of following their approach on estimates of participants’ expectation updating behavior in an RCT.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Dovern, Jonas and Annabell Schneider. 2025. "Eliciting expectation posteriors: the role of information provision about priors." AEA RCT Registry. August 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16435-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
In the RCT we exogenously vary whether panelists in an online household survey in Germany (conducted with Norstat) are shown their priors when we elicit their posteriors about inflation expectations (with horizons of twelve and 24 months).
Intervention Start Date
2025-08-02
Intervention End Date
2025-10-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Posterior inflation expectations (12- and 24-months horizon, in percent)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
These posteriors are elicited after some of the panelists have been provided with some information about the central bank's mandate or inflation track record (as part of a different RCT study).

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The information/reminder about the priors is given verbally as part of the question that asks for the posterior. It is not especially highlighted.

The control group receives only the identically formulated question (without the reminder).
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is implemented via random number generation within the implementation of the survey (in Limesurvey).
Randomization Unit
Randomization is done at the level of private households.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
n.a.
Sample size: planned number of observations
The survey will cover n=3,000 households.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately n=300 households will receive the treatment with reminder about the prior. Approximately n=2700 households will serve as control group.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan