Revisiting the Monetary Policy Response to the 2021-2022 Inflation Surge: Households' Assessment and Inflation Expectations

Last registered on August 04, 2025

Pre-Trial

General Information

Title

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0016439

Initial registration date

August 01, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

August 04, 2025, 6:28 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name

Annabell Schneider

Affiliation

Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2025-08-02

End date

2026-05-31

Keywords

Governance

Additional Keywords

JEL code(s)

E31, E58

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

This project uses a randomized controlled trial (RCT) survey among German households to identify the causal effect of knowledge about the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy on households' assessments of the policy rate hikes in response to the recent inflation surge (May 2021-October 2022) and their current inflation expectations.

The RCT assigns participants to one of three groups. One group receives information about the ECB's mandate, another about its historical performance, and the third group receives both. In addition, I analyze whether the treatment effects on households' assessments and inflation expectations vary across different dimensions of heterogeneity.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Schneider, Annabell. 2025. "Revisiting the Monetary Policy Response to the 2021-2022 Inflation Surge: Households' Assessment and Inflation Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. August 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16439-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

The survey experiment is conducted in cooperation with Norstat, which provides the panel of respondents.

RCT within a household survey:

The first treatment group receives publicly available information on the ECB's mandate, detailing how policy rates are used to address deviations of inflation above or below the target. A second treatment group receives information about the ECB's past performance in stabilizing inflation at its target, including the average inflation rate over the past 25 years and the most recent inflation rate. The third treatment group receives both types of information: the ECB's inflation target, the average inflation rate since 1999, and the most recent inflation rate. The control group does not receive any information.

Intervention Start Date

2025-08-02

Intervention End Date

2025-10-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

inflation expectations (with expectation horizons 12 and 24 month; in percent), assessment of likelihood of reaching inflation target in the medium term (0-10), assessment of the ECB's policy rate hikes in response to the 2021/22 inflation surge (0-10)

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Reasons why households dislike the ECB's interest rate policy in response to the 2021/22 inflation surge

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

If participants rate the recent policy rate hikes below 5, a follow-up question will ask them to indicate the main reasons for their dissatisfaction with the ECB's response to the 2021/22 inflation surge. They can select the option that best reflects their view: raise interest rates more strongly, raise interest rates less strongly, raise interest rates more quickly, rely more heavily on other monetary policy measures (e.g., selling bonds), other, I am unsure.

Experimental Design

In the RCT survey, respondents are randomly assigned to one of the four groups (three treatment groups and one control group). Each information treatment is presented on a separate screen, and respondents must confirm that they have read the information carefully before proceeding. Information is provided after we elicit priors and before we elicit posteriors.

In addition, we incentivize participants through bonus payments which they will receive 1 year after the survey. To do so, we randomly select five individuals from those who have reported their posterior inflation expectations for the next 12 months as accurately as possible - that is, if their estimate deviates by no more than plus/minus 0.2 percentage points from the actual value. Each of the five selected individuals receives 50 euros.

Experimental Design Details

Not available

Randomization Method

Participants will be randomly assigned to different treatments. Randomization is done by the software on which the survey is based (LimeSurvey).

Randomization Unit

Randomization of information across households who participate in the survey.

Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

n.a.

Sample size: planned number of observations

Approximately, 3,000 private households

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

Approximately 750 private households will serve as a control group. About 750 households will be assigned to the first treatment group (information about the mandate). The second treatment group will consist of approximately 1,000 households (information about past performance). The third treatment group will include approximately 500 households.

There will be approximately 1,000 private households in each of the two treatment groups (information about mandate/information about past performance).

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name

IRB Approval Date

IRB Approval Number

Analysis Plan